Metis·FootballFPL · Gameweek 4

FPL Gameweek 4 projections & best XI.

GW4 complete · locked Sat, 12 Sept 2026

Model updated 12 Sep · 05:02 UTC

Metis projects 61.2 points for its Fantasy 11 in Gameweek 4 (3-5-2, £99.8m squad), captained by João Pedro.

Best captain pick: João Pedro at 13.9 captain EV, ahead of Isak (12.2).

João Pedro leads the 320-player pool on 7.0 xPts across 10 Premier League fixtures.

Gameweek 4

CurrentGW6 GW6 GW5 GW4 GW3 All gameweeks

Metis FC GW4 decision →

How it went

Fantasy 11 — 59 actual vs 61.2 projected

projected 61.2·actual 59(-2.2)game average 69

Player	Proj	Actual	Δ
HorníčekGK	3.7	1	-2.7
MitchellDEF	5.5	1	-4.5
ThomasDEF	3.2	0	-3.2
O'SheaDEF	3.1	1	-2.1
B.FernandesMID	5.3	2	-3.3
ØdegaardMID	5.4	3	-2.4
João PedroCFWD	7.0	12 (24)	+5.0
HaalandFWD	5.8	9	+3.2
TavernierMID	5.0	8	+3.0
SakaMID	5.4	8	+2.6
MbeumoMID	4.8	2	-2.8
Bench
PalmerGK · bench	0.1	0	-0.1
van EwijkDEF · bench	2.7	0	-2.7
GreavesDEF · bench	2.8	1	-1.8
Thomas-AsanteFWD · bench	1.4	1	-0.4

Locked 2026-09-12 05:02 UTC · deadline 2026-09-12 12:30 UTC

Best legal squad, rebuilt from scratch

Metis Fantasy 11 — Gameweek 4

Fantasy home →

HorníčekNEW · GK3.7

MitchellCRY · DEF5.5 ThomasCOV · DEF3.2 O'SheaIPS · DEF3.1

B.FernandesMUN · MID5.3 ØdegaardARS · MID5.4 TavernierBOU · MID5.0 SakaARS · MID5.4 MbeumoMUN · MID4.8

CJoão PedroCHE · FWD7.0 VHaalandMCI · FWD5.8

Bench3-5-2

PalmerIPS · GK0.1 van EwijkCOV · DEF2.7 GreavesIPS · DEF2.8 Thomas-AsanteCOV · FWD1.4

C captain · V vice captain · projected points before captain doubling

Projected XI points

61.2

captain doubled

Captain

João Pedro

vice · Haaland

Squad cost

£99.8m

15-man squad · 3-5-2

Armband

Captain picks — Gameweek 4

Captain picks →

Captain picks GW4
#	Player	Capt EV	Floor	Ceiling	Start%	Haul%	Blank%
1	FWDJoão Pedro CHE	13.9	2	15	96%	28%	40%
2	FWDIsak LIV	12.2	1	13	92%	21%	48%
3	MIDPalmer CHE	12.0	1	14	96%	21%	35%
4	FWDHaaland MCI	11.5	1	13	96%	17%	51%
5	MIDGomez BHA	11.0	1	13	95%	20%	39%

This gameweek

Highest xPts, differentials, value, ceilings, floors, blank risk

Highest xPts

FWDJoão Pedro CHE7.0 xP

FWDIsak LIV6.1 xP

MIDPalmer CHE6.0 xP

FWDHaaland MCI5.8 xP

MIDGomez BHA5.5 xP

Differentials (<10% owned)

MIDTavernier BOU4% own

MIDGomez BHA5% own

DEFMitchell CRY7% own

MIDSchade BRE4% own

MIDMcGinn AVL2% own

Best value

DEFMitchell CRY1.22 xP/£m

MIDGomez BHA1.10 xP/£m

FWDNketiah CRY0.91 xP/£m

FWDKostoulas BHA0.91 xP/£m

FWDJoão Pedro CHE0.90 xP/£m

Highest ceiling

FWDJoão Pedro CHE15 pts

MIDSaka ARS14 pts

MIDPalmer CHE14 pts

DEFMitchell CRY14 pts

MIDØdegaard ARS13 pts

Highest floor

FWDJoão Pedro CHE2 pts

GKRaya ARS1 pts

DEFGabriel ARS1 pts

MIDLewis-Skelly ARS1 pts

DEFCalafiori ARS1 pts

Lowest blank risk

MIDAnderson MCI30%

DEFLacroix CHE30%

MIDSzoboszlai LIV34%

MIDPalmer CHE35%

MIDRogers CHE36%

Ranking

Top 20 projected players — Gameweek 4

Full expected-points list →

Top projected players GW4
#	Player	xPts	Price	Owned	Start%	Ceiling	Haul%
1	FWDJoão Pedro CHE	7.0	£7.7m	74%	96%	15	28%
2	FWDIsak LIV	6.1	£9.1m	23%	92%	13	21%
3	MIDPalmer CHE	6.0	£9.7m	27%	96%	14	21%
4	FWDHaaland MCI	5.8	£15.5m	71%	96%	13	17%
5	MIDGomez BHA	5.5	£5.0m	5%	95%	13	20%
6	DEFMitchell CRY	5.5	£4.5m	7%	97%	14	18%
7	MIDSzoboszlai LIV	5.4	£7.0m	39%	96%	12	17%
8	MIDRogers CHE	5.4	£7.6m	33%	96%	13	18%
9	MIDSaka ARS	5.4	£9.5m	12%	74%	14	23%
10	MIDØdegaard ARS	5.4	£6.7m	18%	95%	13	19%
11	MIDB.Fernandes MUN	5.3	£12.0m	43%	97%	13	19%
12	DEFLacroix CHE	5.0	£6.0m	8%	97%	9	9%
13	MIDTavernier BOU	5.0	£6.0m	4%	97%	12	17%
14	FWDNketiah CRY	5.0	£5.5m	0.7%	71%	13	19%
15	FWDKostoulas BHA	5.0	£5.5m	0.5%	76%	13	18%
16	MIDTel TOT	5.0	£5.8m	0.3%	94%	12	16%
17	FWDCalvert-Lewin LEE	4.9	£6.0m	22%	97%	11	10%
18	MIDMbeumo MUN	4.8	£7.9m	24%	95%	11	14%
19	MIDGroß BHA	4.8	£5.6m	16%	97%	11	14%
20	FWDWissa NEW	4.8	£6.2m	18%	92%	12	12%

Fixture projections

Gameweek 4 fixtures — clean sheets & key players

Premier League →

Aston VillavNott'm Forest

Sat 12 Sept

CS Aston Villa: 31%
CS Nott'm Forest: 24%

MIDMcGinn AVLstart 96%4.4
MIDBuendía AVLstart 95%4.2
MIDBarkley AVLstart 93%4.0
FWDN.Jackson AVLstart 82%4.0

BournemouthvBrentford

Sat 12 Sept

CS Bournemouth: 27%
CS Brentford: 24%

MIDTavernier BOUstart 97%5.0
MIDSchade BREstart 97%4.4
MIDScott BOUstart 96%4.2
FWDEvanilson BOUstart 97%3.9

ChelseavHull City

Sat 12 Sept

CS Chelsea: 46%
CS Hull City: 11%

FWDJoão Pedro CHEstart 96%7.0
MIDPalmer CHEstart 96%6.0
MIDRogers CHEstart 96%5.4
DEFLacroix CHEstart 97%5.0

Crystal PalacevIpswich Town

Sat 12 Sept

CS Crystal Palace: 32%
CS Ipswich Town: 19%

DEFMitchell CRYstart 97%5.5
FWDNketiah CRYstart 71%5.0
DEFCanvot CRYstart 94%4.3
MIDWharton CRYstart 96%4.2

LiverpoolvFulham

Sat 12 Sept

CS Liverpool: 39%
CS Fulham: 13%

FWDIsak LIVstart 92%6.1
MIDSzoboszlai LIVstart 96%5.4
DEFVirgil LIVstart 98%4.5
GKA.Becker LIVstart 97%4.1

SpursvEverton

Sat 12 Sept

CS Spurs: 32%
CS Everton: 24%

MIDTel TOTstart 94%5.0
DEFVan Hecke TOTstart 98%4.4
FWDBarry EVEstart 94%4.3
DEFTarkowski EVEstart 98%3.7

SunderlandvArsenal

Sat 12 Sept

CS Sunderland: 15%
CS Arsenal: 46%

MIDSaka ARSstart 74%5.4
MIDØdegaard ARSstart 95%5.4
DEFGabriel ARSstart 95%4.8
FWDHavertz ARSstart 68%4.6

Coventry CityvBrighton

Sun 13 Sept

CS Coventry City: 19%
CS Brighton: 31%

MIDGomez BHAstart 95%5.5
FWDKostoulas BHAstart 76%5.0
MIDGroß BHAstart 97%4.8
FWDAwoniyi COVstart 78%4.0

Man UtdvMan City

Sun 13 Sept

CS Man Utd: 19%
CS Man City: 26%

FWDHaaland MCIstart 96%5.8
MIDB.Fernandes MUNstart 97%5.3
MIDMbeumo MUNstart 95%4.8
MIDAnderson MCIstart 97%4.2

LeedsvNewcastle

Mon 14 Sept

CS Leeds: 28%
CS Newcastle: 25%

FWDCalvert-Lewin LEEstart 97%4.9
FWDWissa NEWstart 92%4.8
MIDStach LEEstart 97%4.1
MIDOkafor LEEstart 81%4.0

By position

Top projected by position

GKMartinez CHE£5.0m4.2

GKA.Becker LIV£5.5m4.1

GKRaya ARS£6.0m3.9

GKHorníček NEW£5.0m3.7

GKHenderson CRY£5.0m3.6

DEF

DEFMitchell CRY£4.5m5.5

DEFLacroix CHE£6.0m5.0

DEFGabriel ARS£8.0m4.8

DEFVirgil LIV£6.5m4.5

DEFFofana CHE£5.0m4.5

MID

MIDPalmer CHE£9.7m6.0

MIDGomez BHA£5.0m5.5

MIDSzoboszlai LIV£7.0m5.4

MIDRogers CHE£7.6m5.4

MIDSaka ARS£9.5m5.4

FWD

FWDJoão Pedro CHE£7.7m7.0

FWDIsak LIV£9.1m6.1

FWDHaaland MCI£15.5m5.8

FWDNketiah CRY£5.5m5.0

FWDKostoulas BHA£5.5m5.0

Methodology

Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m. This page is the record as published before the deadline; projections are not revised after the fact.

Last updated 12 Sep · 05:02 UTC