GW7 projected points
9.2
1st of 320
Start probability
96%
Next fixture
Haul probability
41%
10+ points
Blank risk
28%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
2
Mean projection
9.2
90th percentile
17
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Ipswich Town
17 Oct
Aston Villa
24 Oct
Brighton
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £15.6m
- Ownership
- 75%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.59
- Rank · forwards
- 1st of 30
Read the model’s player summary
Erling Haaland (Man City, Forward, £15.6m) is projected 9.2 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 1st of 320 projected players and 1st of 30 forwards.
The model gives Haaland a 96% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 41% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 28%, a genuine haul candidate; the 10th-90th percentile range is 2-17 points.
Next up: Ipswich Town (H) in GW7 (9.2 xP), then Aston Villa (A) in GW8 (6.3 xP), then Brighton (H) in GW9 (6.6 xP).
This week Haaland is captain of the Metis Fantasy 11, the 1st-ranked captain pick.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3F11 captain | 7.0 | 9▲+2.0 | 90 | 95% | 1–13 |
| GW4F11 | 5.8 | 9▲+3.2 | 90 | 96% | 1–13 |
| GW5F11 captain | 8.3 | 6▼-2.3 | 90 | 96% | 2–16 |
| GW6F11 | 5.9 | pending | — | 96% | 1–13 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
9.2
GW8
6.3
GW9
6.6
GW10
6.0
GW11
7.2
GW12
4.4
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.