FPL fixture ticker, in expected points.
GW11 deadline · Sat 21 Nov, 11:00 UK
Model updated
Measured in expected points rather than a difficulty rating, Bournemouth have the best FPL fixture run over GW11–16 at 241.2 xPts for their likely XI, and Newcastle United the worst at 149.2.
Each cell sums the projected points of the club's likely starters for that gameweek, so it already reflects opponent strength, home advantage and who actually plays. Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Likely XI xPts by gameweek
Every club, GW11–16
| Club | Next | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | GW14 | GW15 | GW16 | Total | CS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | NFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H) | 43.6 | 37.8 | 37.9 | 45.1 | 28.6 | 48.2 | 241.2 | 34% |
| Manchester City | FUL (H) · ARS (A) · LEE (H) | 42.8 | 28.9 | 42.5 | 35.3 | 40.8 | 44.5 | 234.8 | 46% |
| Brighton | HUL (A) · NEW (H) · BOU (A) | 36.9 | 39.8 | 33.2 | 35.4 | 39.1 | 43.8 | 228.2 | 36% |
| Arsenal | NEW (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A) | 38.1 | 34.7 | 35.5 | 37.8 | 40.4 | 39.4 | 225.9 | 44% |
| Liverpool | MUN (H) · EVE (A) · SUN (H) | 36.8 | 34.3 | 41.6 | 32.1 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 224.6 | 24% |
| Brentford | EVE (H) · MUN (A) · ARS (H) | 40.9 | 34.2 | 32.3 | 33.4 | 36.9 | 41.5 | 219.2 | 36% |
| Nottingham Forest | BOU (A) · CHE (H) · HUL (A) | 32.1 | 36.4 | 36.2 | 34.4 | 36.2 | 38.6 | 213.9 | 19% |
| Fulham | MCI (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A) | 27.7 | 38.4 | 36.0 | 35.3 | 37.6 | 35.6 | 210.6 | 12% |
| Everton | BRE (A) · LIV (H) · AVL (A) | 32.5 | 36.5 | 33.4 | 39.3 | 30.9 | 35.4 | 208.0 | 22% |
| Leeds United | CHE (A) · COV (H) · MCI (A) | 29.9 | 42.1 | 24.8 | 40.3 | 29.7 | 37.4 | 204.2 | 17% |
| Ipswich Town | TOT (A) · AVL (H) · COV (A) | 32.5 | 35.0 | 36.4 | 32.0 | 36.4 | 28.0 | 200.3 | 17% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | IPS (H) · SUN (A) · FUL (H) | 39.5 | 33.5 | 36.1 | 27.9 | 33.6 | 29.5 | 200.1 | 33% |
| Manchester United | LIV (A) · BRE (H) · NEW (A) | 30.0 | 34.8 | 31.9 | 41.6 | 34.3 | 23.4 | 196.0 | 18% |
| Hull City | BHA (H) · CRY (A) · NFO (H) | 32.4 | 34.6 | 37.2 | 29.9 | 36.9 | 24.4 | 195.4 | 22% |
| Aston Villa | SUN (H) · IPS (A) · EVE (H) | 34.8 | 31.8 | 32.3 | 35.0 | 32.4 | 26.8 | 193.1 | 40% |
| Chelsea | LEE (H) · NFO (A) · CRY (H) | 33.5 | 29.2 | 34.9 | 29.7 | 21.4 | 30.6 | 179.3 | 32% |
| Crystal Palace | COV (A) · HUL (H) · CHE (A) | 33.6 | 35.0 | 25.7 | 26.3 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 179.0 | 29% |
| Sunderland | AVL (A) · TOT (H) · LIV (A) | 24.0 | 28.6 | 22.9 | 24.6 | 28.4 | 29.9 | 158.4 | 21% |
| Coventry City | CRY (H) · LEE (A) · IPS (H) | 30.0 | 24.2 | 30.0 | 21.7 | 26.4 | 22.6 | 154.9 | 30% |
| Newcastle United | ARS (H) · BHA (A) · MUN (H) | 21.9 | 21.8 | 26.2 | 29.6 | 26.9 | 22.8 | 149.2 | 18% |
Azure = the club's best gameweek in the window, dim = its worst. CS% is this gameweek only.
Next three · GW11–13
Best short-term runs
Methodology
Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m. Likely XI = the goalkeeper plus the ten outfielders most likely to start, each clearing 50 %; a club's row changes when its projected lineup does, not only when its fixtures do.
Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC