FPL fixture ticker, in expected points.
GW6 deadline · Sat 10 Oct, 11:00 UK
Model updated
Measured in expected points rather than a difficulty rating, Manchester City have the best FPL fixture run over GW6–11 at 265.8 xPts for their likely XI, and Ipswich Town the worst at 148.9.
Each cell sums the projected points of the club's likely starters for that gameweek, so it already reflects opponent strength, home advantage and who actually plays. Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Likely XI xPts by gameweek
Every club, GW6–11
| Club | Next | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | Total | CS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | LIV (A) · IPS (H) · AVL (A) | 38.6 | 52.4 | 41.3 | 42.9 | 42.6 | 48.0 | 265.8 | 28% |
| Arsenal | LEE (H) · NFO (A) · EVE (H) | 40.7 | 36.2 | 39.5 | 32.4 | 42.7 | 34.8 | 226.3 | 52% |
| Manchester United | TOT (H) · LEE (A) · BOU (H) | 42.5 | 35.8 | 38.9 | 32.3 | 40.1 | 31.3 | 220.9 | 39% |
| Leeds United | ARS (A) · MUN (H) · SUN (A) | 28.8 | 37.9 | 38.3 | 35.5 | 43.9 | 35.0 | 219.4 | 14% |
| Sunderland | BHA (H) · BOU (A) · LEE (H) | 35.3 | 33.4 | 39.2 | 39.4 | 36.0 | 34.1 | 217.4 | 21% |
| Everton | HUL (A) · CHE (H) · ARS (A) | 38.0 | 37.3 | 28.7 | 34.5 | 44.5 | 32.5 | 215.5 | 32% |
| Liverpool | MCI (H) · BRE (A) · BHA (H) | 33.0 | 33.4 | 36.9 | 33.2 | 38.0 | 38.6 | 213.1 | 22% |
| Bournemouth | CHE (A) · SUN (H) · MUN (A) | 31.0 | 38.6 | 30.1 | 36.3 | 34.8 | 36.4 | 207.2 | 18% |
| Crystal Palace | NFO (H) · BHA (A) · NEW (H) | 35.9 | 29.6 | 35.5 | 36.5 | 31.9 | 36.0 | 205.4 | 26% |
| Brighton | SUN (A) · CRY (H) · LIV (A) | 35.6 | 39.2 | 30.5 | 26.5 | 36.3 | 36.0 | 204.1 | 30% |
| Newcastle United | COV (A) · AVL (H) · CRY (A) | 35.9 | 36.2 | 32.3 | 34.5 | 31.5 | 28.8 | 199.2 | 31% |
| Brentford | AVL (A) · LIV (H) · HUL (A) | 30.5 | 32.3 | 32.5 | 35.5 | 28.2 | 34.7 | 193.7 | 25% |
| Fulham | IPS (A) · HUL (H) · COV (A) | 32.8 | 36.3 | 34.6 | 29.8 | 34.1 | 24.2 | 191.8 | 26% |
| Chelsea | BOU (H) · EVE (A) · TOT (H) | 32.1 | 28.9 | 36.0 | 31.5 | 30.7 | 32.1 | 191.3 | 28% |
| Nottingham Forest | CRY (A) · ARS (H) · IPS (A) | 33.9 | 29.2 | 34.8 | 29.3 | 28.9 | 31.2 | 187.3 | 25% |
| Coventry City | NEW (H) · TOT (A) · FUL (H) | 30.5 | 29.2 | 30.8 | 30.6 | 25.9 | 30.8 | 177.8 | 22% |
| Hull City | EVE (H) · FUL (A) · BRE (H) | 30.7 | 28.2 | 29.3 | 33.7 | 21.2 | 28.1 | 171.2 | 29% |
| Aston Villa | BRE (H) · NEW (A) · MCI (H) | 29.7 | 26.5 | 25.3 | 31.7 | 24.9 | 31.8 | 169.9 | 28% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | MUN (A) · COV (H) · CHE (A) | 23.6 | 33.3 | 23.8 | 28.8 | 26.4 | 32.0 | 167.9 | 13% |
| Ipswich Town | FUL (H) · MCI (A) · NFO (H) | 28.2 | 18.6 | 26.7 | 24.6 | 25.7 | 25.1 | 148.9 | 27% |
Azure = the club's best gameweek in the window, dim = its worst. CS% is this gameweek only.
Next three · GW6–8
Best short-term runs
Methodology
Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m. Likely XI = the goalkeeper plus the ten outfielders most likely to start, each clearing 50 %; a club's row changes when its projected lineup does, not only when its fixtures do.
Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC