GW11 projected points
4.3
27th of 320
Start probability
91%
Next fixture
Haul probability
12%
10+ points
Blank risk
49%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.3
90th percentile
10
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Ipswich Town
21 Nov
Sunderland
29 Nov
Fulham
3 Dec
Player context
- Price
- £6.6m
- Ownership
- 2%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.66
- Rank · midfielders
- 17th of 135
Read the model’s player summary
Mohammed Kudus (Spurs, Midfielder, £6.6m) is projected 4.3 FPL points in Gameweek 11, ranking 27th of 320 projected players and 17th of 135 midfielders.
The model gives Kudus a 91% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 12% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 49%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-10 points.
Next up: Ipswich Town (H) in GW11 (4.3 xP), then Sunderland (A) in GW12 (3.7 xP), then Fulham (H) in GW13 (4.0 xP).
This week Kudus is a differential at 2.0% ownership (15th on the differentials list).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 0.8 | 1▲+0.2 | 29 | 11% | 0–2 |
| GW4 | 0.9 | 1▲+0.1 | 27 | 9% | 0–2 |
| GW5 | 0.9 | 4▲+3.1 | 45 | 8% | 0–2 |
| GW6 | 0.8 | 3▲+2.2 | 65 | 5% | 0–1 |
| GW7 | 0.9 | 6▲+5.1 | 86 | 5% | 0–1 |
| GW8 | 3.4 | 3▼-0.4 | 88 | 76% | 0–9 |
| GW9 | 4.0 | 7▲+3.0 | 90 | 86% | 1–10 |
| GW10 | 3.8 | pending | — | 93% | 1–9 |
| GW11 | 4.5latest | pending | — | 91% | 1–11 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW11
4.3
GW12
3.7
GW13
4.0
GW14
3.3
GW15
3.6
GW16
3.4
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 08 Nov · 05:15 UTC.