Metis·FootballFPL · Gameweek 6

Best FPL differentials, Gameweek 6.

GW6 deadline · Sat 10 Oct, 11:00 UK

Model updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC

Kai Havertz (Arsenal, 8.5% owned) is the best FPL differential for Gameweek 6 at 5.5 expected points with a 94% start probability; Tavernier (6.7%) is next on 5.5.

A differential here is any player owned by fewer than 10% of managers with at least a 60% chance of starting — 147 of 320 projected players qualify tonight, ranked purely by xPts.

Under 10% owned · likely starters

Top 25 differentials by expected points

Gameweek 6 page →

Top 25 differentials
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	Ceiling	Haul%	Next
1	FWDHavertz ARS	5.5	9%	£7.6m	94%	13	16%	v LEE
2	MIDTavernier BOU	5.5	7%	£6.1m	96%	13	19%	@ CHE
3	FWDKostoulas BHA	5.2	4%	£5.6m	87%	12	18%	@ SUN
4	MIDBarnes NEW	5.1	5%	£6.1m	94%	13	18%	@ COV
5	FWDBrobbey SUN	4.8	7%	£5.7m	95%	12	11%	v BHA
6	MIDE.Le Fée SUN	4.8	3%	£5.7m	97%	12	15%	v BHA
7	FWDBarry EVE	4.7	8%	£5.6m	94%	12	11%	@ HUL
8	MIDGomez BHA	4.5	4%	£5.0m	95%	10	13%	@ SUN
9	MIDBuendía AVL	4.5	1%	£5.9m	94%	11	13%	v BRE
10	MIDMcGinn AVL	4.5	2%	£5.4m	96%	11	12%	v BRE
11	DEFMitchell CRY	4.4	6%	£4.5m	97%	10	12%	v NFO
12	MIDEnciso IPS	4.4	0.8%	£5.5m	95%	10	13%	v FUL
13	FWDN.Jackson AVL	4.3	1%	£6.5m	83%	12	12%	v BRE
14	MIDKing FUL	4.3	2%	£5.5m	94%	10	11%	@ IPS
15	DEFBotman NEW	4.3	0.7%	£5.0m	96%	9	9%	@ COV
16	MIDScott BOU	4.3	6%	£6.1m	96%	9	9%	@ CHE
17	DEFEgan HUL	4.2	7%	£4.1m	96%	9	9%	v EVE
18	FWDMcBurnie HUL	4.1	2%	£5.5m	95%	9	9%	v EVE
19	FWDThiago BRE	4.1	9%	£7.8m	96%	9	8%	@ AVL
20	MIDRudoni COV	4.0	0.1%	£4.9m	91%	10	11%	v NEW
21	DEFFofana CHE	4.0	0.2%	£5.0m	92%	9	8%	v BOU
22	DEFMaguire MUN	4.0	9%	£4.8m	96%	8	6%	v TOT
23	MIDDewsbury-Hall EVE	3.9	6%	£6.6m	96%	9	10%	@ HUL
24	MIDBelloumi HUL	3.9	5%	£5.1m	87%	9	10%	v EVE
25	MIDYeremy CRY	3.9	0.4%	£5.5m	83%	10	12%	v NFO

Goalkeeper

Differential goalkeepers

Differential goalkeepers
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	CS%	Next
1	GKHorníček NEW	3.9	2%	£5.0m	95%	31%	@ COV
2	GKMartinez CHE	3.7	5%	£5.0m	94%	28%	v BOU
3	GKSuzuki AVL	3.6	2%	£5.0m	91%	28%	v BRE
4	GKKelleher BRE	3.6	6%	£5.0m	96%	25%	@ AVL
5	GKPickford EVE	3.4	9%	£5.5m	97%	32%	@ HUL

Defender

Differential defenders

Differential defenders
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	CS%	Next
1	DEFMitchell CRY	4.4	6%	£4.5m	97%	26%	v NFO
2	DEFBotman NEW	4.3	0.7%	£5.0m	96%	31%	@ COV
3	DEFEgan HUL	4.2	7%	£4.1m	96%	29%	v EVE
4	DEFFofana CHE	4.0	0.2%	£5.0m	92%	28%	v BOU
5	DEFMaguire MUN	4.0	9%	£4.8m	96%	39%	v TOT

Midfielder

Differential midfielders

Differential midfielders
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	Haul%	Next
1	MIDTavernier BOU	5.5	7%	£6.1m	96%	19%	@ CHE
2	MIDBarnes NEW	5.1	5%	£6.1m	94%	18%	@ COV
3	MIDE.Le Fée SUN	4.8	3%	£5.7m	97%	15%	v BHA
4	MIDGomez BHA	4.5	4%	£5.0m	95%	13%	@ SUN
5	MIDBuendía AVL	4.5	1%	£5.9m	94%	13%	v BRE

Forward

Differential forwards

Differential forwards
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	Haul%	Next
1	FWDHavertz ARS	5.5	9%	£7.6m	94%	16%	v LEE
2	FWDKostoulas BHA	5.2	4%	£5.6m	87%	18%	@ SUN
3	FWDBrobbey SUN	4.8	7%	£5.7m	95%	11%	v BHA
4	FWDBarry EVE	4.7	8%	£5.6m	94%	11%	@ HUL
5	FWDN.Jackson AVL	4.3	1%	£6.5m	83%	12%	v BRE

Methodology

Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m. Ownership is the official FPL selected-by percentage at publish time.

Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC