Metis·FootballFPL · Gameweek 11

Best FPL differentials, Gameweek 11.

GW11 deadline · Sat 21 Nov, 11:00 UK

Model updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC

Pedro Lomba Neto (Chelsea, 5.1% owned) is the best FPL differential for Gameweek 11 at 5.2 expected points with a 96% start probability; Manzambi (8.2%) is next on 5.2.

A differential here is any player owned by fewer than 10% of managers with at least a 60% chance of starting — 157 of 320 projected players qualify tonight, ranked purely by xPts.

Under 10% owned · likely starters

Top 25 differentials by expected points

Gameweek 11 page →

Top 25 differentials
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	Ceiling	Haul%	Next
1	MIDNeto CHE	5.2	5%	£6.6m	96%	13	18%	v LEE
2	MIDManzambi AVL	5.2	8%	£6.2m	95%	12	16%	v SUN
3	FWDThiago BRE	4.8	9%	£7.8m	96%	12	13%	v EVE
4	MIDRudoni COV	4.8	1%	£4.9m	95%	12	17%	v CRY
5	MIDMcGinn AVL	4.8	3%	£5.4m	84%	12	15%	v SUN
6	MIDE.Le Fée SUN	4.6	3%	£5.7m	96%	12	14%	@ AVL
7	MIDAyari BHA	4.6	2%	£5.5m	95%	11	14%	@ HUL
8	MIDNdiaye MCI	4.6	6%	£5.8m	94%	10	12%	v FUL
9	MIDWirtz LIV	4.5	5%	£7.2m	96%	11	13%	v MUN
10	MIDDoku MCI	4.5	5%	£7.5m	83%	11	14%	v FUL
11	MIDKudus TOT	4.5	2%	£6.6m	91%	11	13%	v IPS
12	GKSuzuki AVL	4.5	3%	£5.0m	95%	10	10%	v SUN
13	FWDBarry EVE	4.4	9%	£5.7m	94%	9	9%	@ BRE
14	FWDMarmoush TOT	4.4	3%	£7.0m	87%	11	11%	v IPS
15	DEFHill BOU	4.4	3%	£5.6m	95%	9	9%	v NFO
16	MIDO.Dango BRE	4.4	0.4%	£6.2m	80%	11	14%	v EVE
17	MIDGomez BHA	4.3	4%	£5.0m	95%	10	11%	@ HUL
18	DEFPinnock COV	4.3	0.1%	£4.5m	93%	10	11%	v CRY
19	FWDHavertz ARS	4.3	6%	£7.4m	73%	12	12%	@ NEW
20	FWDMcBurnie HUL	4.3	2%	£5.5m	95%	9	10%	v BHA
21	DEFVuskovic BHA	4.3	8%	£5.2m	96%	9	8%	@ HUL
22	DEFAjer BRE	4.2	4%	£4.5m	95%	9	9%	v EVE
23	MIDRayan BOU	4.1	2%	£6.3m	96%	10	11%	v NFO
24	DEFSilva BOU	4.1	4%	£5.1m	96%	9	7%	v NFO
25	GKKelleher BRE	4.1	6%	£5.0m	96%	9	9%	v EVE

Goalkeeper

Differential goalkeepers

Differential goalkeepers
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	CS%	Next
1	GKSuzuki AVL	4.5	3%	£5.0m	95%	40%	v SUN
2	GKKelleher BRE	4.1	6%	£5.0m	96%	36%	v EVE
3	GKDonnarumma MCI	4.1	7%	£5.5m	96%	46%	v FUL
4	GKPetrović BOU	3.3	3%	£4.5m	96%	34%	v NFO
5	GKRushworth COV	3.2	0.8%	£4.5m	95%	30%	v CRY

Defender

Differential defenders

Differential defenders
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	CS%	Next
1	DEFHill BOU	4.4	3%	£5.6m	95%	34%	v NFO
2	DEFPinnock COV	4.3	0.1%	£4.5m	93%	30%	v CRY
3	DEFVuskovic BHA	4.3	8%	£5.2m	96%	36%	@ HUL
4	DEFAjer BRE	4.2	4%	£4.5m	95%	36%	v EVE
5	DEFSilva BOU	4.1	4%	£5.1m	96%	34%	v NFO

Midfielder

Differential midfielders

Differential midfielders
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	Haul%	Next
1	MIDNeto CHE	5.2	5%	£6.6m	96%	18%	v LEE
2	MIDManzambi AVL	5.2	8%	£6.2m	95%	16%	v SUN
3	MIDRudoni COV	4.8	1%	£4.9m	95%	17%	v CRY
4	MIDMcGinn AVL	4.8	3%	£5.4m	84%	15%	v SUN
5	MIDE.Le Fée SUN	4.6	3%	£5.7m	96%	14%	@ AVL

Forward

Differential forwards

Differential forwards
#	Player	xPts	Owned	Price	Start%	Haul%	Next
1	FWDThiago BRE	4.8	9%	£7.8m	96%	13%	v EVE
2	FWDBarry EVE	4.4	9%	£5.7m	94%	9%	@ BRE
3	FWDMarmoush TOT	4.4	3%	£7.0m	87%	11%	v IPS
4	FWDHavertz ARS	4.3	6%	£7.4m	73%	12%	@ NEW
5	FWDMcBurnie HUL	4.3	2%	£5.5m	95%	10%	v BHA

Methodology

Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m. Ownership is the official FPL selected-by percentage at publish time.

Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC