GW7 projected points
4.4
31st of 320
Start probability
95%
Next fixture
Haul probability
9%
10+ points
Blank risk
65%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.4
90th percentile
9
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Liverpool
17 Oct
Hull City
25 Oct
Nott'm Forest
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £7.8m
- Ownership
- 9%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.56
- Rank · forwards
- 8th of 30
Read the model’s player summary
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues (Brentford, Forward, £7.8m) is projected 4.4 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 31st of 320 projected players and 8th of 30 forwards.
The model gives Thiago a 95% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 9% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 65%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-9 points.
Next up: Liverpool (H) in GW7 (4.4 xP), then Hull City (A) in GW8 (4.3 xP), then Nott'm Forest (H) in GW9 (4.6 xP).
This week Thiago is a differential at 9.4% ownership (17th on the differentials list).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.6 | 2▼-2.6 | 90 | 79% | 1–12 |
| GW4 | 3.3 | 1▼-2.3 | 90 | 74% | 0–9 |
| GW5 | 3.3 | 5▲+1.7 | 90 | 71% | 0–9 |
| GW6 | 4.3 | pending | — | 95% | 1–9 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
4.4
GW8
4.3
GW9
4.6
GW10
3.9
GW11
4.5
GW12
4.0
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.