Season 2026/27
Metis FC.
The model actually plays FPL. One squad. Real transfers. Real chips. No retrospective overrides.
Model controlled · Decisions timestamped before deadline · manual overrides: 0
Model updated
Decision history
Realised points
475
season total
Projected vs realised
489.8 → 432
8 scored gameweeks
Projection error
19.1
mean abs · bias -7.2
Decisions recorded
9
pre-deadline · 1 reconstructed
Overrides
0
manual interventions
Bank
£0.1m
selling value not included
Free transfers
1
hits taken 0
Squad as locked · GW10
persistent — carried between gameweeks, not rebuiltC captain · V vice captain · projected points before captain doubling
Exactly as recorded in the pre-deadline snapshot (5 Nov, 04:59 UTC) — player values are projected points at decision time, not tonight's projections. The squad only changes at the next lock.
Latest decision · GW10
recorded pre-deadlineGreaves→HillBournemouth · +7.8 pts horizon
Captain Haaland · vice Havertz · chip none
Greaves → Hill (+7.8 pts over the horizon)
Full GW10 record →Chip policy
evaluated at the GW10 lock- Wildcardplayed · GW3
rebuild gain beyond what free transfers recover anyway · fires at 12.0
- Free hitheld1.7 / 6.7
one-week gain over the owned XI — 56.9 fresh vs 53.2 owned
- Bench boostheld9.9 / 11.8
bench points, against what this bench normally makes — 0.96× the 10.3 typical week, needs 1.15× · blocked: not all four bench players are likely to start
- Triple captainheld5.6 / 7.3
captain's points, against a typical captain week — 0.90× the 6.2 typical week, needs 1.18× · a better week is visible (6.6)
From GW3 onward every chip is scored before each deadline and played only when it clears its bar (GW1 and GW2 carry no chip evaluation — a process gap the decision log states rather than hides). Wildcard and free hit are judged on points gained over an explicit counterfactual — what free transfers would have recovered anyway. Triple captain and bench boost are judged against what this squad actually achieves in a typical week, because a projection is an average, not a haul: a double gameweek shows up as a large multiple and fires them. Bars ease as a chip nears its final eligible gameweek, so nothing expires unused.
Decision log
tap a gameweek for the full pre-deadline recordGW10Greaves → HillC Haaland · pre-deadline—
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 5 Nov, 04:59 UTC
- Deadline
- 6 Nov, 18:30 UTC
- Transfer
- Greaves → Hill
- Captain
- Haaland
- Projected GW points
- 58.7
Greaves → Hill (+7.8 pts over the horizon)
Permanent record for GW10 →Chips considered
- free hit1.7 vs 6.7 · held
- bench boost9.9 vs 11.8 · held
- triple captain5.6 vs 7.3 · held
Known after deadline
Gameweek not settled yet.
GW9Saka → RogersC Haaland · pre-deadline43
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 30 Oct, 04:56 UTC
- Deadline
- 31 Oct, 11:00 UTC
- Transfer
- Saka → Rogers
- Captain
- Haaland
- Projected GW points
- 56.9
Saka → Rogers (+8.4 pts over the horizon)
Permanent record for GW9 →Chips considered
- free hit5.1 vs 8.1 · held
- bench boost7.2 vs 13.0 · held
- triple captain6.4 vs 7.6 · held
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 43
- Game average
- 47
- Season total
- 475
Scored from official player points (XI, autosubs, captain doubling) — no real-world entry played this exact squad.
| Player | Proj | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| KelleherGK | 4.0 | 7 | +3.0 |
| EganDEF | 4.0 | 1 | -3.0 |
| O'SheaDEF | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| MitchellDEF | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| MbeumoMID | 5.4 | 1 | -4.4 |
| TavernierMID | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| RogersMID | 5.6 | 9 | +3.4 |
| GomezMID | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 |
| HaalandCFWD | 7.3 | 2 (4) | -5.3 |
| Calvert-LewinFWD | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
| HavertzFWD | 3.0 | 9 | +6.0 |
| Bench | |||
| LenoGK · bench | 3.0 | 2 | -1.0 |
| B.FernandesMID · bench | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| ThomasDEF · bench | 1.7 | 0 | -1.7 |
| GreavesDEF · bench | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
GW8Horníček → Kelleher, Wissa → Calvert-LewinC Haaland · pre-deadline43
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 22 Oct, 05:02 UTC
- Deadline
- 23 Oct, 17:30 UTC
- Transfer
- Horníček → Kelleher
- Transfer
- Wissa → Calvert-Lewin
- Captain
- Haaland
- Projected GW points
- 62.9
Horníček → Kelleher (+3.3 pts over the horizon); Wissa → Calvert-Lewin (+1.5 pts over the horizon)
Permanent record for GW8 →Chips considered
- free hit0.9 vs 5.0 · held
- bench boost13.3 vs 15.3 · held
- triple captain6.4 vs 7.8 · held
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 43
- Game average
- 45
- Season total
- 432
Scored from official player points (XI, autosubs, captain doubling) — no real-world entry played this exact squad.
| Player | Proj | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| KelleherGK | 4.4 | 2 | -2.4 |
| ThomasDEF | 3.9 | 1 | -2.9 |
| MitchellDEF | 3.6 | 1 | -2.6 |
| O'SheaDEF | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| MbeumoMID | 7.0 | 2 | -5.0 |
| B.FernandesMID · autosubbed out | 6.2 | 0 | -6.2 |
| TavernierMID | 4.8 | 10 | +5.2 |
| GomezMID | 4.0 | 2 | -2.0 |
| HaalandCFWD | 7.4 | 8 (16) | +0.6 |
| HavertzFWD | 6.0 | 1 | -5.0 |
| Calvert-LewinFWD | 4.9 | 2 | -2.9 |
| Bench | |||
| LenoGK · bench | 3.4 | 8 | +4.6 |
| EganDEF · bench | 3.4 | 4 | +0.6 |
| SakaMID · bench | 3.2 | 0 | -3.2 |
| GreavesDEF · bench | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
GW7no transfer (free transfer rolled)C Saka · reconstructed (no pre-deadline record)56
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 18 Oct, 17:44 UTC
- Deadline
- 17 Oct, 10:00 UTC
- Captain
- Saka
- Projected GW points
- 62.9
Squad, lineup and captaincy carried forward from GW6; free transfer rolled.
Permanent record for GW7 →No chip evaluation was recorded before this deadline. Chip decisions are evaluated and recorded before each deadline from GW3 onward.
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 56
- Game average
- 59
- Season total
- 389
Scored from official player points (XI, autosubs, captain doubling) — no real-world entry played this exact squad.
| Player | Proj | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| HorníčekGK | 3.7 | 2 | -1.7 |
| MitchellDEF | 3.1 | 0 | -3.1 |
| EganDEF | 3.4 | 4 | +0.6 |
| O'SheaDEF | 1.9 | 3 | +1.1 |
| SakaCMID | 6.1 | 3 (6) | -3.1 |
| MbeumoMID | 5.6 | 8 | +2.4 |
| B.FernandesMID | 5.6 | 1 | -4.6 |
| TavernierMID | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 |
| GomezMID | 5.0 | 8 | +3.0 |
| WissaFWD | 6.0 | 1 | -5.0 |
| HaalandFWD | 9.2 | 13 | +3.8 |
| Bench | |||
| LenoGK · bench | 4.1 | 6 | +1.9 |
| ThomasDEF · bench | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| HavertzFWD · bench | 4.9 | 2 | -2.9 |
| GreavesDEF · bench | 1.0 | 1 | +0.0 |
GW6João Pedro → HavertzC Saka · pre-deadline43
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 9 Oct, 05:58 UTC
- Deadline
- 10 Oct, 10:00 UTC
- Transfer
- João Pedro → Havertz
- Captain
- Saka
- Projected GW points
- 66.3
João Pedro → Havertz (+1.6 pts over the horizon)
Permanent record for GW6 →Chips considered
- free hit1.0 vs 5.0 · held
- bench boost13.1 vs 15.7 · held
- triple captain6.5 vs 8.0 · held
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 43
- Game average
- 58
- Season total
- 333
Scored from official player points (XI, autosubs, captain doubling) — no real-world entry played this exact squad.
| Player | Proj | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| HorníčekGK | 4.0 | 0 | -4.0 |
| MitchellDEF | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 |
| EganDEF | 3.8 | 1 | -2.8 |
| O'SheaDEF | 3.6 | 11 | +7.4 |
| SakaCMID | 8.1 | 2 (4) | -6.1 |
| MbeumoMID | 6.6 | 8 | +1.4 |
| B.FernandesMID | 6.5 | 1 | -5.5 |
| TavernierMID | 5.3 | 1 | -4.3 |
| GomezMID | 4.4 | 5 | +0.6 |
| WissaFWD | 5.9 | 2 | -3.9 |
| HaalandFWD | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Bench | |||
| LenoGK · bench | 3.4 | 2 | -1.4 |
| ThomasDEF · bench | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| HavertzFWD · bench | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
| GreavesDEF · bench | 1.9 | 0 | -1.9 |
GW5Slater → TavernierC Haaland · pre-deadline48
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 17 Sept, 04:09 UTC
- Deadline
- 18 Sept, 17:30 UTC
- Transfer
- Slater → Tavernier
- Captain
- Haaland
- Projected GW points
- 64.1
Slater → Tavernier (+3.0 pts over the horizon)
Permanent record for GW5 →Chips considered
- free hit2.5 vs 5.0 · held
- bench boost12.6 vs 17.5 · held
- triple captain7.2 vs 7.8 · held
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 48
- Game average
- 48
- Season total
- 290
Scored from official player points (XI, autosubs, captain doubling) — no real-world entry played this exact squad.
| Player | Proj | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| HorníčekGK | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| MitchellDEF | 3.8 | 7 | +3.2 |
| EganDEF | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| ThomasDEF | 3.2 | 9 | +5.8 |
| TavernierMID | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 |
| MbeumoMID | 5.6 | 2 | -3.6 |
| SakaMID | 5.6 | 2 | -3.6 |
| B.FernandesMID | 6.0 | 2 | -4.0 |
| GomezMID | 3.8 | 8 | +4.2 |
| HaalandCFWD | 8.2 | 6 (12) | -2.2 |
| WissaFWD | 6.8 | 0 | -6.8 |
| Bench | |||
| LenoGK · bench | 3.0 | 3 | +0.0 |
| João PedroFWD · bench | 4.3 | 0 | -4.3 |
| O'SheaDEF · bench | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| GreavesDEF · bench | 2.6 | 0 | -2.6 |
GW4O'Reilly → Mitchell, Tzolakis → HorníčekC João Pedro · pre-deadline53
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 11 Sept, 05:36 UTC
- Deadline
- 12 Sept, 12:30 UTC
- Transfer
- O'Reilly → Mitchell
- Transfer
- Tzolakis → Horníček
- Captain
- João Pedro
- Projected GW points
- 60.9
O'Reilly → Mitchell (+5.4 pts over the horizon); Tzolakis → Horníček (+3.5 pts over the horizon)
Permanent record for GW4 →Chips considered
- free hit3.6 vs 5.3 · held
- bench boost10.6 vs 16.5 · held
- triple captain6.0 vs 7.5 · held
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 53
- Game average
- 69
- Season total
- 242
Scored from official player points (XI, autosubs, captain doubling) — no real-world entry played this exact squad.
| Player | Proj | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| HorníčekGK | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| MitchellDEF | 5.5 | 1 | -4.5 |
| ThomasDEF | 3.2 | 0 | -3.2 |
| O'SheaDEF | 3.1 | 1 | -2.1 |
| B.FernandesMID | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 |
| GomezMID | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 |
| SakaMID | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 |
| MbeumoMID | 4.9 | 2 | -2.9 |
| João PedroCFWD | 7.0 | 12 (24) | +5.0 |
| HaalandFWD | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 |
| WissaFWD | 4.8 | 2 | -2.8 |
| Bench | |||
| LenoGK · bench | 2.4 | 9 | +6.6 |
| EganDEF · bench | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| GreavesDEF · bench | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| SlaterMID · bench | 2.8 | 2 | -0.8 |
GW3wildcardC Haaland · wildcard_h1 · pre-deadline45
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 4 Sept, 00:41 UTC
- Deadline
- 4 Sept, 17:30 UTC
- Captain
- Haaland
- Projected GW points
- 62.5
Wildcard played — over the next 6 gameweeks the rebuild projects 244.9 pts vs 235.7 for spending free transfers one per week (+9.2, threshold 4.5). Out: Dubravka, Palmer, Alderete, Wieffer, Diop, van Ewijk, Semenyo, Rice, Simms, Iwobi. In: Wissa, Saka, O'Reilly, Gomez, Egan, Leno, Tzolakis, Slater, O'Shea, Greaves.
Permanent record for GW3 →Chips considered
- wildcard9.2 vs 4.5 · played
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 45
- Game average
- 51
- Season total
- 189
Scored from official player points (XI, autosubs, captain doubling) — no real-world entry played this exact squad.
| Player | Proj | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| LenoGK | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| O'ReillyDEF · autosubbed out | 5.8 | 0 | -5.8 |
| EganDEF | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 |
| O'SheaDEF | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 |
| SakaMID | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 |
| MbeumoMID | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 |
| GomezMID | 5.6 | 2 | -3.6 |
| B.FernandesMID | 6.0 | 2 | -4.0 |
| HaalandCFWD | 7.0 | 9 (18) | +2.0 |
| WissaFWD | 5.9 | 1 | -4.9 |
| João PedroFWD | 4.5 | 1 | -3.5 |
| Bench | |||
| TzolakisGK · bench | 3.3 | 6 | +2.7 |
| SlaterMID · bench | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| GreavesDEF · bench | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| ThomasDEF · bench | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
GW2Ndiaye → IwobiC B.Fernandes · pre-deadline101
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 26 Aug, 22:43 UTC
- Deadline
- 28 Aug, 17:30 UTC
- Transfer
- Ndiaye → Iwobi
- Captain
- B.Fernandes
- Projected GW points
- 53.3
Ndiaye → Iwobi within the free transfer; captain B.Fernandes (v Ipswich, H); Diop out of the XI. Recorded 2026-08-26, ~43h before the deadline.
Permanent record for GW2 →No chip evaluation was recorded before this deadline. Chip decisions are evaluated and recorded before each deadline from GW3 onward.
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 101
- Game average
- 81
- Season total
- 144
Scored from official player points (XI, autosubs, captain doubling) — no real-world entry played this exact squad.
| Player | Proj | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| DubravkaGK · autosubbed out | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| WiefferDEF | 3.8 | 0 | -3.8 |
| van EwijkDEF | 2.7 | 2 | -0.7 |
| ThomasDEF | 2.7 | 8 | +5.3 |
| MbeumoMID | 6.3 | 11 | +4.7 |
| B.FernandesCMID | 6.2 | 23 (46) | +16.8 |
| HaalandFWD | 5.8 | 13 | +7.3 |
| SemenyoMID | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 |
| João PedroFWD | 4.8 | 9 | +4.2 |
| RiceMID | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| IwobiMID | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 |
| Bench | |||
| PalmerGK · bench | — | 0 | — |
| AldereteDEF · bench | — | 0 | — |
| DiopDEF · bench | — | 2 | — |
| SimmsFWD · bench | — | 0 | — |
GW1Starting squadC Haaland · pre-deadline43
Known before deadline
- Decision recorded
- 21 Aug, 12:06 UTC
- Deadline
- 21 Aug, 17:30 UTC
- Captain
- Haaland
Season-opening 15 from the multi-GW horizon optimiser under the £100.0m budget (3-5-2 fielded).
Permanent record for GW1 →No chip evaluation was recorded before this deadline. Chip decisions are evaluated and recorded before each deadline from GW3 onward.
Known after deadline
- Gameweek points
- 43
- Game average
- 50
- Season total
- 43
How Metis FC works
Unlike the Metis Fantasy 11 — which rebuilds the best legal squad from scratch every gameweek — Metis FC lives with its history: purchase prices, selling prices, bank, free transfers, hits and chips all persist. Before each deadline the model solves for the best legal action from its exact current state over a multi-gameweek horizon, and the decision is persisted in an immutable snapshot before the deadline passes. Hard FPL rules (budget, selling prices, squad shape, three per club, chip state) are enforced in deterministic code.
2026/27 season note
2026/27 season note — the dedicated Metis FC entry was not registered before the opening deadline. The model-selected starting squad was independently entered in a private FPL account and is used as the season's initial state. From GW2 onward, Metis FC decisions are generated and timestamped by the model with no retrospective overrides; the private account did not follow the GW2 decision, so from that point Metis FC is scored from official player scores and carries no real-world overall rank. Personal account details are not published.