GW7 projected points
6.1
3rd of 320
Start probability
94%
Next fixture
Haul probability
26%
10+ points
Blank risk
33%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
6.1
90th percentile
14
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Nott'm Forest
18 Oct
Everton
24 Oct
Liverpool
1 Nov
Player context
- Price
- £9.6m
- Ownership
- 17%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.64
- Rank · midfielders
- 2nd of 136
Read the model’s player summary
Bukayo Saka (Arsenal, Midfielder, £9.6m) is projected 6.1 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 3rd of 320 projected players and 2nd of 136 midfielders.
The model gives Saka a 94% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 26% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 33%, a genuine haul candidate; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-14 points.
Next up: Nott'm Forest (A) in GW7 (6.1 xP), then Everton (H) in GW8 (6.7 xP), then Liverpool (A) in GW9 (5.8 xP).
This week Saka is in the Metis Fantasy 11, the 3rd-ranked captain pick.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3F11 | 5.4 | 2▼-3.4 | 89 | 73% | 0–14 |
| GW4F11 | 5.4 | 8▲+2.6 | 90 | 74% | 0–14 |
| GW5 | 5.4 | 2▼-3.4 | 80 | 76% | 0–14 |
| GW6F11 captain | 8.3 | pending | — | 95% | 2–18 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
6.1
GW8
6.7
GW9
5.8
GW10
7.2
GW11
6.2
GW12
5.4
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.