World Cup 2026
Every World Cup match, modelled.
Every prediction, tracked in public.
Metis runs a probability model over every fixture at the 2026 World Cup — and logs every call, hits and misses, so you can see exactly how it's doing.
Free daily model read. No spam. 18+.
First up · 11 June
The model's read
11 June
1 matchTracking begins 11 June. Every call logged in public — the hits and the misses.
Transparency
Recent results
Tournament shape
Who wins it?
Methodology
How the model works
Rate every team
An Elo rating for all 295 international sides, tuned across a decade of results, then adjusted for the players each squad actually brings to 2026.
Model every match
Each fixture becomes a goals distribution — home advantage, host effects and altitude included — giving a probability for every scoreline, not just a winner.
Simulate the tournament
Fifty thousand simulations play out the groups and the bracket, so every team gets an honest chance of reaching each round. Re-run after every matchday.