ArchiveWorld Cup 2026 — tournament concluded. Forecasts preserved as published.Current club forecasts →

World Cup 2026 · the record

Every match, predicted vs actual.

All 104 matches settled — the model's call landed in 69 of 104 (66.3%). Knockout ties grade on who advances (extra time and penalties included, from the engine's own tie simulation); group matches grade on the 1X2.

Group forecasts are as published pre-tournament; knockout forecasts were reconstructed point-in-time after a mid-tournament pipeline outage. See the full read-vs-reality retrospective →

Final

1/1 called

Sun 19 Jul✓ hit

Spain1–0aetArgentina

Model called Spain to advance (53%).

Third place

0/1 called

Sat 18 Jul✗ miss

England6–4France

Model called France (43%).

Semi-finals

2/2 called

Tue 14 Jul✓ hit

Spain2–0France

Model called Spain to advance (53%).

Wed 15 Jul✓ hit

Argentina2–1England

Model called Argentina to advance (57%).

Quarter-finals

4/4 called

Thu 9 Jul✓ hit

France2–0Morocco

Model called France to advance (79%).

Fri 10 Jul✓ hit

Spain2–1Belgium

Model called Spain to advance (71%).

Sat 11 Jul✓ hit

England2–1aetNorway

Model called England to advance (61%).

Sat 11 Jul✓ hit

Argentina3–1aetSwitzerland

Model called Argentina to advance (70%).

Round of 16

6/8 called

Sat 4 Jul✓ hit

France1–0Paraguay

Model called France to advance (78%).

Sat 4 Jul✓ hit

Morocco3–0Canada

Model called Morocco to advance (54%).

Sun 5 Jul✗ miss

Norway2–1Brazil

Model called Brazil to advance (60%).

Sun 5 Jul✓ hit

Mexico2–3England

Model called England to advance (60%).

Mon 6 Jul✓ hit

Spain1–0Portugal

Model called Spain to advance (65%).

Mon 6 Jul✓ hit

USA1–4Belgium

Model called Belgium to advance (58%).

Tue 7 Jul✓ hit

Argentina3–2Egypt

Model called Argentina to advance (83%).

Tue 7 Jul✗ miss

Colombia0–0pens 3–4Switzerland

Model called Colombia to advance (54%).

Round of 32

11/16 called

Sun 28 Jun✓ hit

Canada1–0South Africa

Model called Canada to advance (53%).

Mon 29 Jun✓ hit

Brazil2–1Japan

Model called Brazil to advance (62%).

Mon 29 Jun✗ miss

Germany1–1pens 3–4Paraguay

Model called Germany to advance (61%).

Mon 29 Jun✗ miss

Morocco1–1pens 3–2Netherlands

Model called Netherlands to advance (65%).

Tue 30 Jun✓ hit

Norway2–1Ivory Coast

Model called Norway to advance (60%).

Tue 30 Jun✓ hit

France3–0Sweden

Model called France to advance (83%).

Tue 30 Jun✗ miss

Mexico2–0Ecuador

Model called Ecuador to advance (51%).

Wed 1 Jul✓ hit

England2–1Congo DR

Model called England to advance (84%).

Wed 1 Jul✗ miss

Belgium3–2Senegal

Model called Senegal to advance (55%).

Wed 1 Jul✓ hit

USA2–0Bosnia & Herzegovina

Model called USA to advance (67%).

Thu 2 Jul✓ hit

Spain3–0Austria

Model called Spain to advance (78%).

Thu 2 Jul✓ hit

Portugal2–1Croatia

Model called Portugal to advance (57%).

Thu 2 Jul✓ hit

Switzerland2–0Algeria

Model called Switzerland to advance (57%).

Fri 3 Jul✗ miss

Australia1–1pens 2–4Egypt

Model called Australia to advance (55%).

Fri 3 Jul✓ hit

Argentina3–2aetCape Verde Islands

Model called Argentina to advance (84%).

Fri 3 Jul✓ hit

Colombia1–0Ghana

Model called Colombia to advance (84%).

Group stage

45/72 called

Thu 11 Jun✓ hit

Mexico2–0South Africa

Model called Mexico (41%).

Fri 12 Jun✗ miss

South Korea2–1Czech Republic

Model called Czech Republic (40%).

Fri 12 Jun✗ miss

Canada1–1Bosnia & Herzegovina

Model called Bosnia & Herzegovina (38%).

Sat 13 Jun✓ hit

USA4–1Paraguay

Model called USA (54%).

Sat 13 Jun✗ miss

Qatar1–1Switzerland

Model called Switzerland (50%).

Sat 13 Jun✗ miss

Brazil1–1Morocco

Model called Brazil (45%).

Sun 14 Jun✓ hit

Haiti0–1Scotland

Model called Scotland (54%).

Sun 14 Jun✗ miss

Australia2–0Türkiye

Model called Türkiye (48%).

Sun 14 Jun✓ hit

Germany7–1Curaçao

Model called Germany (63%).

Sun 14 Jun✗ miss

Netherlands2–2Japan

Model called Netherlands (43%).

Sun 14 Jun✓ hit

Ivory Coast1–0Ecuador

Model called Ivory Coast (42%).

Mon 15 Jun✓ hit

Sweden5–1Tunisia

Model called Sweden (45%).

Mon 15 Jun✗ miss

Spain0–0Cape Verde Islands

Model called Spain (65%).

Mon 15 Jun✗ miss

Belgium1–1Egypt

Model called Belgium (46%).

Mon 15 Jun✗ miss

Saudi Arabia1–1Uruguay

Model called Uruguay (59%).

Tue 16 Jun✗ miss

Iran2–2New Zealand

Model called Iran (61%).

Tue 16 Jun✓ hit

France3–1Senegal

Model called France (44%).

Tue 16 Jun✓ hit

Iraq1–4Norway

Model called Norway (53%).

Wed 17 Jun✓ hit

Argentina3–0Algeria

Model called Argentina (56%).

Wed 17 Jun✓ hit

Austria3–1Jordan

Model called Austria (46%).

Wed 17 Jun✗ miss

Portugal1–1Congo DR

Model called Portugal (60%).

Wed 17 Jun✓ hit

England4–2Croatia

Model called England (50%).

Wed 17 Jun✓ hit

Ghana1–0Panama

Model called Ghana (37%).

Thu 18 Jun✓ hit

Uzbekistan1–3Colombia

Model called Colombia (55%).

Thu 18 Jun✗ miss

Czech Republic1–1South Africa

Model called South Africa (38%).

Thu 18 Jun✓ hit

Switzerland4–1Bosnia & Herzegovina

Model called Switzerland (57%).

Thu 18 Jun✗ miss

Canada6–0Qatar

Model called Qatar (44%).

Fri 19 Jun✓ hit

Mexico1–0South Korea

Model called Mexico (44%).

Fri 19 Jun✓ hit

USA2–0Australia

Model called USA (40%).

Fri 19 Jun✓ hit

Scotland0–1Morocco

Model called Morocco (42%).

Sat 20 Jun✓ hit

Brazil3–0Haiti

Model called Brazil (63%).

Sat 20 Jun✗ miss

Türkiye0–1Paraguay

Model called Türkiye (60%).

Sat 20 Jun✓ hit

Netherlands5–1Sweden

Model called Netherlands (53%).

Sat 20 Jun✓ hit

Germany2–1Ivory Coast

Model called Germany (47%).

Sun 21 Jun✗ miss

Ecuador0–0Curaçao

Model called Ecuador (52%).

Sun 21 Jun✓ hit

Tunisia0–4Japan

Model called Japan (54%).

Sun 21 Jun✓ hit

Spain4–0Saudi Arabia

Model called Spain (68%).

Sun 21 Jun✗ miss

Belgium0–0Iran

Model called Belgium (38%).

Sun 21 Jun✗ miss

Uruguay2–2Cape Verde Islands

Model called Uruguay (52%).

Mon 22 Jun✓ hit

New Zealand1–3Egypt

Model called Egypt (53%).

Mon 22 Jun✓ hit

Argentina2–0Austria

Model called Argentina (59%).

Mon 22 Jun✓ hit

France3–0Iraq

Model called France (59%).

Tue 23 Jun✓ hit

Norway3–2Senegal

Model called Norway (38%).

Tue 23 Jun✓ hit

Jordan1–2Algeria

Model called Algeria (51%).

Tue 23 Jun✓ hit

Portugal5–0Uzbekistan

Model called Portugal (50%).

Tue 23 Jun✗ miss

England0–0Ghana

Model called England (66%).

Tue 23 Jun✓ hit

Panama0–1Croatia

Model called Croatia (62%).

Wed 24 Jun✓ hit

Colombia1–0Congo DR

Model called Colombia (62%).

Wed 24 Jun✓ hit

Switzerland2–1Canada

Model called Switzerland (57%).

Wed 24 Jun✗ miss

Bosnia & Herzegovina3–1Qatar

Model called Qatar (42%).

Wed 24 Jun✓ hit

Morocco4–2Haiti

Model called Morocco (59%).

Wed 24 Jun✓ hit

Scotland0–3Brazil

Model called Brazil (50%).

Thu 25 Jun✓ hit

South Africa1–0South Korea

Model called South Africa (41%).

Thu 25 Jun✓ hit

Czech Republic0–3Mexico

Model called Mexico (42%).

Thu 25 Jun✓ hit

Curaçao0–2Ivory Coast

Model called Ivory Coast (57%).

Thu 25 Jun✗ miss

Ecuador2–1Germany

Model called Germany (52%).

Thu 25 Jun✓ hit

Tunisia1–3Netherlands

Model called Netherlands (60%).

Thu 25 Jun✗ miss

Japan1–1Sweden

Model called Japan (46%).

Fri 26 Jun✗ miss

Paraguay0–0Australia

Model called Australia (50%).

Fri 26 Jun✓ hit

Türkiye3–2USA

Model called Türkiye (46%).

Fri 26 Jun✓ hit

Norway1–4France

Model called France (44%).

Fri 26 Jun✓ hit

Senegal5–0Iraq

Model called Senegal (53%).

Sat 27 Jun✗ miss

Cape Verde Islands0–0Saudi Arabia

Model called Cape Verde Islands (44%).

Sat 27 Jun✓ hit

Uruguay0–1Spain

Model called Spain (58%).

Sat 27 Jun✗ miss

Egypt1–1Iran

Model called Iran (45%).

Sat 27 Jun✓ hit

New Zealand1–5Belgium

Model called Belgium (61%).

Sat 27 Jun✓ hit

Croatia2–1Ghana

Model called Croatia (62%).

Sat 27 Jun✓ hit

Panama0–2England

Model called England (66%).

Sat 27 Jun✗ miss

Colombia0–0Portugal

Model called Colombia (40%).

Sat 27 Jun✗ miss

Congo DR3–1Uzbekistan

Model called Uzbekistan (48%).

Sun 28 Jun✗ miss

Algeria3–3Austria

Model called Algeria (41%).

Sun 28 Jun✓ hit

Jordan1–3Argentina

Model called Argentina (63%).

← Home Tournament forecast & retrospective →