Metis·Football20,000 simulations
The tournament, as called by Metis.
Every team's road to the final — share of simulations reaching each stage.
| Team | Qualify | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
97% | 78% | 61% | 36% | 27% | 18% | |
96% | 88% | 56% | 37% | 25% | 16% | |
92% | 80% | 48% | 30% | 19% | 11% | |
93% | 81% | 49% | 26% | 14% | 7.8% | |
94% | 63% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6.6% | |
91% | 76% | 43% | 22% | 11% | 5.7% | |
91% | 75% | 42% | 21% | 10% | 4.9% | |
80% | 58% | 29% | 15% | 6.8% | 3.0% | |
85% | 50% | 27% | 15% | 6.5% | 2.8% | |
87% | 65% | 33% | 14% | 6.2% | 2.5% | |
89% | 55% | 33% | 10% | 5.4% | 2.4% | |
93% | 52% | 29% | 14% | 5.8% | 2.3% | |
76% | 52% | 25% | 12% | 5.1% | 2.1% | |
89% | 58% | 32% | 10% | 5.0% | 2.0% | |
88% | 52% | 30% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | |
90% | 53% | 23% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | |
80% | 41% | 20% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | |
84% | 51% | 25% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | |
85% | 45% | 25% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | |
77% | 36% | 16% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
65% | 38% | 15% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | |
88% | 40% | 18% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
69% | 41% | 17% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | |
70% | 32% | 14% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
73% | 34% | 15% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
75% | 36% | 17% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
70% | 30% | 11% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
58% | 23% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
62% | 31% | 11% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
59% | 23% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
59% | 22% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
58% | 22% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
73% | 30% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
72% | 29% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
52% | 25% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | <0.1% | |
54% | 22% | 7.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | |
35% | 14% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | |
44% | 13% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
57% | 15% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
35% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
21% | 7.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
27% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
24% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
31% | 12% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
41% | 15% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
31% | 7.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
18% | 3.3% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | |
25% | 4.1% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
Marginal probabilities — the share of 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations in which a team reaches that stage. Re-run after every match · last updated undefined.