The tournament, as called by Metis.
Every team's road to the final — share of simulations reaching each stage.
The record
The Metis read vs reality
Pre-tournament favourite
Spain
16.0% to win — champion
Knockouts: favourite advanced
24/31
77.4% · 7/7 from the quarter-finals on
90-minute 1X2 accuracy
62.5%
group stage · all 104 settled
Win-the-tournament probability, as each round opened
| Team | Pre-tournament | Before R32 | Before R16 | Before QF | Before SF | Before final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 16.0% | 16.6% | 19.5% | 25.2% | 29.5% | 54.0% | champion |
| Argentina | 15.4% | 19.8% | 20.1% | 22.5% | 28.0% | 46.0% | |
| France | 10.4% | 16.5% | 21.6% | 24.0% | 24.8% | out | |
| England | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 17.6% | out | |
| Brazil | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | out | out | out |
Spain's path — Metis pre-match win probability (90')
Round of 32
v Austria
65.0% to win
3–0
Round of 16
v Portugal
52.5% to win
1–0
Quarter-finals
v Belgium
58.3% to win
2–1
Semi-finals
v France
41.8% to win
2–0
Final
v Argentina
42.3% to win
1–0 aet
Accuracy by stage — Metis vs the closing market
| Stage | Matches | 1X2 (90') | Metis RPS | Market RPS | Favourite advanced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group stage | 72 | 62.5% | 0.174 | 0.143 | — |
| Round of 32 | 16 | 62.5% | 0.166 | 0.133 | 11/16 |
| Round of 16 | 8 | 75.0% | 0.176 | 0.183 | 6/8 |
| Quarter-finals | 4 | 50.0% | 0.129 | 0.131 | 4/4 |
| Semi-finals | 2 | 100.0% | 0.217 | 0.306 | 2/2 |
| Final | 1 | 0.0% | 0.153 | 0.123 | 1/1 |
Across all 104 matches the closing market scored 0.150 RPS to Metis's 0.173 (lower is better) — but from the round of 16 onward the Metis read, priced a day before each match, beat the close in every round except the final. Market = Pinnacle's closing 1X2, de-vigged. The comparison flatters the market: it prices with confirmed lineups minutes before kick-off, while the group-stage Metis numbers were published before the tournament began.
Matches decided in extra time or on penalties grade as draws on the 90-minute 1X2 market. Group forecasts are the as-published pre-tournament model reads. Knockout forecasts and bracket checkpoints were reconstructed point-in-time after a mid-tournament pipeline outage: ratings as of the day before each match, no hindsight inputs.
| Team | Qualify | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
97% | 77% | 60% | 34% | 25% | 16% | |
95% | 87% | 55% | 37% | 24% | 15% | |
91% | 78% | 47% | 29% | 18% | 10% | |
93% | 80% | 47% | 25% | 14% | 7.5% | |
93% | 62% | 39% | 25% | 13% | 6.6% | |
91% | 76% | 43% | 22% | 11% | 5.7% | |
91% | 75% | 42% | 21% | 11% | 5.2% | |
82% | 61% | 31% | 17% | 7.9% | 3.7% | |
87% | 65% | 32% | 14% | 6.1% | 2.7% | |
83% | 47% | 25% | 14% | 6.1% | 2.6% | |
89% | 53% | 31% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 2.3% | |
88% | 57% | 31% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | |
76% | 52% | 25% | 12% | 5.1% | 2.3% | |
93% | 51% | 27% | 13% | 5.4% | 2.1% | |
88% | 52% | 30% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.0% | |
80% | 42% | 22% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% | |
89% | 52% | 23% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% | |
84% | 51% | 26% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% | |
85% | 46% | 26% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
68% | 41% | 17% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | |
71% | 33% | 15% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | |
89% | 40% | 18% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | |
76% | 35% | 15% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
73% | 34% | 16% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | |
65% | 39% | 16% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
70% | 30% | 12% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
75% | 35% | 16% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
60% | 24% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
61% | 31% | 11% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
56% | 21% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
59% | 23% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
60% | 24% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
72% | 29% | 10% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
74% | 31% | 10% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
52% | 25% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
53% | 22% | 7.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | |
58% | 15% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | |
36% | 16% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | |
42% | 15% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
44% | 13% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | |
31% | 11% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
21% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
24% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
31% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
27% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
26% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | |
34% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0% | |
18% | 3.2% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
Marginal probabilities — the share of 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations in which a team reaches that stage. Re-run after every match during the tournament · last updated undefined.