Metis Football
Metis·Football20,000 simulations

The tournament, as called by Metis.

Every team's road to the final — share of simulations reaching each stage.

TeamQualifyR16QFSFFinalChampion
1ESPSpain
97%
78%
62%
37%
27%
18%
2ARGArgentina
96%
88%
56%
37%
25%
16%
3FRAFrance
92%
80%
49%
30%
19%
11%
4ENGEngland
93%
81%
48%
26%
14%
7.5%
5BRABrazil
94%
63%
40%
25%
13%
6.9%
6PORPortugal
91%
77%
43%
22%
11%
5.4%
7COLColombia
91%
75%
42%
21%
11%
5.0%
8SENSenegal
80%
58%
29%
15%
6.4%
2.8%
9TURTürkiye
86%
50%
28%
16%
6.7%
2.8%
10CROCroatia
87%
65%
33%
14%
6.0%
2.6%
11GERGermany
89%
55%
33%
10%
5.6%
2.5%
12NEDNetherlands
89%
58%
32%
9.7%
5.2%
2.3%
13NORNorway
76%
52%
24%
12%
4.9%
2.2%
14SUISwitzerland
93%
52%
28%
14%
5.4%
2.0%
15ECUEcuador
88%
52%
30%
8.7%
4.3%
1.7%
16BELBelgium
90%
54%
23%
7.5%
3.5%
1.5%
17JPNJapan
84%
50%
25%
6.8%
3.2%
1.2%
18MEXMexico
80%
41%
20%
9.0%
3.2%
1.2%
19URUUruguay
85%
45%
25%
5.1%
2.4%
0.9%
20ALGAlgeria
68%
41%
17%
7.2%
2.5%
0.8%
21PARParaguay
70%
32%
14%
6.3%
2.2%
0.8%
22CZECzech Republic
73%
34%
16%
6.2%
2.2%
0.7%
23AUTAustria
66%
38%
15%
6.1%
2.0%
0.7%
24CANCanada
88%
40%
18%
7.2%
2.3%
0.7%
25MARMorocco
77%
36%
16%
6.6%
2.1%
0.6%
26CIVIvory Coast
75%
36%
17%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
27SCOScotland
69%
29%
12%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
28AUSAustralia
57%
23%
8.7%
3.3%
0.9%
0.3%
29RSASouth Africa
59%
23%
8.6%
3.0%
0.9%
0.3%
30USAUSA
58%
21%
7.9%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
31PANPanama
61%
32%
11%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
32EGYEgypt
71%
29%
9.1%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
33KORSouth Korea
59%
22%
8.3%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
34IRNIran
73%
30%
9.5%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
35UZBUzbekistan
51%
24%
7.9%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
36SWESweden
53%
21%
7.1%
1.3%
0.4%
<0.1%
37BIHBosnia & Herzegovina
57%
16%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
<0.1%
38JORJordan
35%
14%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
<0.1%
39CODCongo DR
31%
11%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
<0.1%
40CPVCape Verde Islands
43%
13%
3.8%
0.5%
<0.1%
<0.1%
41GHAGhana
24%
7.1%
1.3%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
42HAIHaiti
27%
6.3%
1.3%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
43TUNTunisia
42%
15%
4.2%
0.6%
0.1%
<0.1%
44KSASaudi Arabia
31%
7.4%
1.8%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
45NZLNew Zealand
34%
8.4%
1.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
46IRQIraq
20%
7.2%
1.7%
0.4%
<0.1%
<0.1%
47QATQatar
26%
4.2%
0.7%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
48CUWCuraçao
18%
3.2%
0.6%
<0.1%
0%
0%

Marginal probabilities — the share of 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations in which a team reaches that stage. Re-run after every match · last updated undefined.

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