World Cup 2026 · power ranking

Every team, by the numbers.

All 48 teams ranked by the model's Elo rating — the strength estimate that drives every prediction — with each side's simulated chance of lifting the trophy.

1. 1ESPSpain
   192017.8%
2. 2ARGArgentina
   189015.7%
3. 3FRAFrance
   185111.1%
4. 4ENGEngland
   18207.5%
5. 5BRABrazil
   17986.9%
6. 6PORPortugal
   17945.4%
7. 7COLColombia
   17915.0%
8. 8SENSenegal
   17852.8%
9. 9NEDNetherlands
   17632.3%
10. 10ECUEcuador
    17581.7%
11. 11GERGermany
    17542.5%
12. 12NORNorway
    17402.2%
13. 13TURTürkiye
    17382.8%
14. 14CROCroatia
    17382.6%
15. 15JPNJapan
    17341.2%
16. 16BELBelgium
    17241.5%
17. 17URUUruguay
    17240.9%
18. 18SUISwitzerland
    17232.0%
19. 19MEXMexico
    17111.2%
20. 20ALGAlgeria
    16900.8%
21. 21CZECzech Republic
    16880.7%
22. 22PARParaguay
    16800.8%
23. 23AUTAustria
    16770.7%
24. 24MARMorocco
    16750.6%
25. 25CIVIvory Coast
    16530.4%
26. 26CANCanada
    16460.7%
27. 27SCOScotland
    16420.3%
28. 28AUSAustralia
    16380.3%
29. 29IRNIran
    16340.1%
30. 30RSASouth Africa
    16290.3%
31. 31EGYEgypt
    16240.2%
32. 32KORSouth Korea
    16240.1%
33. 33PANPanama
    16030.2%
34. 34USAUSA
    16000.2%
35. 35UZBUzbekistan
    15940.1%
36. 36SWESweden
    15890.1%
37. 37JORJordan
    15650.0%
38. 38TUNTunisia
    15470.0%
39. 39CPVCape Verde Islands
    15400.0%
40. 40IRQIraq
    15190.0%
41. 41CODCongo DR
    15040.0%
42. 42BIHBosnia & Herzegovina
    15020.1%
43. 43KSASaudi Arabia
    14820.0%
44. 44NZLNew Zealand
    14770.0%
45. 45HAIHaiti
    14670.0%
46. 46GHAGhana
    14510.0%
47. 47CUWCuraçao
    13820.0%
48. 48QATQatar
    13720.0%

Elo = model strength rating (fixed at the pre-tournament snapshot). Right column = P(win tournament) across the simulation set.