World Cup 2026 · power ranking

Every team, by the numbers.

All 48 teams ranked by the model's Elo rating — the strength estimate that drives every prediction — with each side's simulated chance of lifting the trophy.

1. 1ESPSpain
   192017.8%
2. 2ARGArgentina
   189015.7%
3. 3FRAFrance
   185110.9%
4. 4ENGEngland
   18207.8%
5. 5BRABrazil
   17986.6%
6. 6PORPortugal
   17945.7%
7. 7COLColombia
   17914.9%
8. 8SENSenegal
   17853.0%
9. 9NEDNetherlands
   17632.0%
10. 10ECUEcuador
    17581.9%
11. 11GERGermany
    17542.4%
12. 12NORNorway
    17402.1%
13. 13TURTürkiye
    17382.8%
14. 14CROCroatia
    17382.5%
15. 15JPNJapan
    17341.2%
16. 16BELBelgium
    17241.4%
17. 17URUUruguay
    17240.8%
18. 18SUISwitzerland
    17232.3%
19. 19MEXMexico
    17111.3%
20. 20ALGAlgeria
    16900.7%
21. 21CZECzech Republic
    16880.7%
22. 22PARParaguay
    16800.7%
23. 23AUTAustria
    16770.8%
24. 24MARMorocco
    16750.8%
25. 25CIVIvory Coast
    16530.4%
26. 26CANCanada
    16460.8%
27. 27SCOScotland
    16420.4%
28. 28AUSAustralia
    16380.3%
29. 29IRNIran
    16340.1%
30. 30RSASouth Africa
    16290.2%
31. 31EGYEgypt
    16240.1%
32. 32KORSouth Korea
    16240.2%
33. 33PANPanama
    16030.2%
34. 34USAUSA
    16000.2%
35. 35UZBUzbekistan
    15940.1%
36. 36SWESweden
    15890.1%
37. 37JORJordan
    15650.1%
38. 38TUNTunisia
    15470.0%
39. 39CPVCape Verde Islands
    15400.0%
40. 40IRQIraq
    15190.0%
41. 41CODCongo DR
    15040.0%
42. 42BIHBosnia & Herzegovina
    15020.0%
43. 43KSASaudi Arabia
    14820.0%
44. 44NZLNew Zealand
    14770.0%
45. 45HAIHaiti
    14670.0%
46. 46GHAGhana
    14510.0%
47. 47CUWCuraçao
    13820.0%
48. 48QATQatar
    13720.0%

Elo = model strength rating (fixed at the pre-tournament snapshot). Right column = P(win tournament) across the simulation set.