MetisFootball
ArchiveWorld Cup 2026 — tournament concluded. Forecasts preserved as published.Current club forecasts →

World Cup 2026 · power ranking

Every team, by the numbers.

All 48 teams ranked by the model's Elo rating — the strength estimate that drives every prediction — with each side's simulated chance of lifting the trophy.

  1. 1ESPSpain194016.0%
  2. 2ARGArgentina188415.4%
  3. 3ENGEngland18797.5%
  4. 4FRAFrance184310.4%
  5. 5NEDNetherlands18102.3%
  6. 6COLColombia17935.2%
  7. 7SENSenegal17853.7%
  8. 8NORNorway17762.3%
  9. 9PORPortugal17655.7%
  10. 10GERGermany17522.3%
  11. 11BRABrazil17446.6%
  12. 12CROCroatia17422.7%
  13. 13SUISwitzerland17372.1%
  14. 14JPNJapan17361.4%
  15. 15IRNIran17250.2%
  16. 16TURTürkiye17222.6%
  17. 17BELBelgium17151.5%
  18. 18URUUruguay17011.1%
  19. 19ALGAlgeria16900.9%
  20. 20MARMorocco16750.7%
  21. 21CIVIvory Coast16530.4%
  22. 22AUTAustria16450.7%
  23. 23SWESweden16370.1%
  24. 24UZBUzbekistan16330.1%
  25. 25RSASouth Africa16290.2%
  26. 26MEXMexico16261.5%
  27. 27USAUSA16250.3%
  28. 28EGYEgypt16240.2%
  29. 29AUSAustralia16240.4%
  30. 30SCOScotland16210.5%
  31. 31CZECzech Republic16090.7%
  32. 32IRQIraq16090.0%
  33. 33QATQatar16040.0%
  34. 34ECUEcuador15962.0%
  35. 35KORSouth Korea15680.3%
  36. 36TUNTunisia15470.0%
  37. 37JORJordan15430.0%
  38. 38CPVCape Verde Islands15400.0%
  39. 39BIHBosnia & Herzegovina15230.0%
  40. 40CODCongo DR15040.0%
  41. 41CANCanada14970.8%
  42. 42PARParaguay14610.8%
  43. 43GHAGhana14510.0%
  44. 44KSASaudi Arabia14500.0%
  45. 45NZLNew Zealand14430.0%
  46. 46CUWCuraçao14330.0%
  47. 47PANPanama14320.3%
  48. 48HAIHaiti14200.0%

Elo = model strength rating (fixed at the pre-tournament snapshot). Right column = P(win tournament) across the simulation set.

← HomeGroup projections →Tournament forecast →