World Cup 2026 · the groups
How the model sees every group.
Projected finishing order across all 12 groups — expected points from the model's match reads, alongside each team's simulated chance of reaching the knockouts. The top two of each group go through, plus the eight best third-placed teams.
Spain's group
xPts · qualify- 1ESPSpain6.897%
- 2URUUruguay4.985%
- 3CPVCape Verde Islandsout2.844%
- 4KSASaudi Arabia2.331%
Argentina's group
xPts · qualifyPortugal's group
xPts · qualify- 1PORPortugal5.891%
- 2COLColombia5.891%
- 3UZBUzbekistanout3.052%
- 4CODCongo DR2.131%
Türkiye's group
xPts · qualifyGermany's group
xPts · qualify- 1GERGermany5.589%
- 2ECUEcuador5.388%
- 3CIVIvory Coastthru4.375%
- 4CUWCuraçao1.618%
Switzerland's group
xPts · qualify- 1SUISwitzerland6.093%
- 2CANCanada5.488%
- 3BIHBosnia & Herzegovinaout3.357%
- 4QATQatar1.925%
Netherlands's group
xPts · qualify- 1NEDNetherlands5.689%
- 2JPNJapan5.184%
- 3SWESwedenout3.254%
- 4TUNTunisia2.741%
Belgium's group
xPts · qualify- 1BELBelgium5.790%
- 2IRNIran4.373%
- 3EGYEgyptthru4.272%
- 4NZLNew Zealand2.335%
Mexico's group
xPts · qualify- 1MEXMexico5.080%
- 2CZECzech Republic4.373%
- 3KORSouth Koreathru3.659%
- 4RSASouth Africa3.559%
xPts = expected points from the model's 1X2 read on each group match. Qualify % = share of simulations reaching the knockout round. ▍ projected top two · ▍ third place through (one of the eight best thirds) · ▍ third place out.