ArchiveWorld Cup 2026 — tournament concluded. Forecasts preserved as published.Current club forecasts →
World Cup 2026 · the groups
How the model sees every group.
Projected finishing order across all 12 groups — expected points from the model's match reads, alongside each team's simulated chance of reaching the knockouts. The top two of each group go through, plus the eight best third-placed teams.
Spain's group
xPts · qualify- 1ESPSpain6.497%
- 2URUUruguay4.685%
- 3CPVCape Verde Islandsout3.144%
- 4KSASaudi Arabia2.531%
Argentina's group
xPts · qualifyPortugal's group
xPts · qualify- 1PORPortugal5.191%
- 2COLColombia5.491%
- 3UZBUzbekistanout3.652%
- 4CODCongo DR2.531%
Türkiye's group
xPts · qualifyGermany's group
xPts · qualify- 1GERGermany5.589%
- 2ECUEcuador4.088%
- 3CIVIvory Coastthru4.675%
- 4CUWCuraçao2.518%
Netherlands's group
xPts · qualify- 1NEDNetherlands5.488%
- 2JPNJapan4.784%
- 3SWESwedenout3.653%
- 4TUNTunisia2.842%
Switzerland's group
xPts · qualify- 1SUISwitzerland5.693%
- 2CANCanada3.489%
- 3BIHBosnia & Herzegovinaout3.458%
- 4QATQatar4.126%
Mexico's group
xPts · qualify- 1MEXMexico4.580%
- 2CZECzech Republic4.073%
- 3RSASouth Africathru4.260%
- 4KORSouth Korea3.759%
Belgium's group
xPts · qualify- 1BELBelgium5.189%
- 2IRNIran5.074%
- 3EGYEgyptthru4.172%
- 4NZLNew Zealand2.434%
xPts = expected points from the model's 1X2 read on each group match. Qualify % = share of simulations reaching the knockout round. ▍ projected top two · ▍ third place through (one of the eight best thirds) · ▍ third place out.