GW7 projected points
7.2
2nd of 320
Start probability
95%
Next fixture
Haul probability
31%
10+ points
Blank risk
33%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
7.2
90th percentile
15
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Sunderland
18 Oct
Man Utd
25 Oct
Leeds
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £6.1m
- Ownership
- 7%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 1.17
- Rank · midfielders
- 1st of 136
Read the model’s player summary
Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth, Midfielder, £6.1m) is projected 7.2 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 2nd of 320 projected players and 1st of 136 midfielders.
The model gives Tavernier a 95% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 31% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 33%, a genuine haul candidate; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-15 points.
Next up: Sunderland (H) in GW7 (7.2 xP), then Man Utd (A) in GW8 (5.7 xP), then Leeds (H) in GW9 (6.4 xP).
This week Tavernier is vice-captain of the Metis Fantasy 11, the 2nd-ranked captain pick, a differential at 7.3% ownership (1st on the differentials list), 1st for value at 1.17 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.4 | 10▲+5.6 | 88 | 97% | 1–10 |
| GW4F11 | 5.0 | 8▲+3.0 | 82 | 97% | 1–12 |
| GW5F11 | 5.0 | 2▼-3.0 | 74 | 97% | 1–12 |
| GW6F11 | 5.4 | pending | — | 96% | 1–13 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
7.2
GW8
5.7
GW9
6.4
GW10
6.2
GW11
6.0
GW12
5.3
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.