GW7 projected points
4.1
45th of 320
Start probability
96%
Next fixture
Haul probability
6%
10+ points
Blank risk
45%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.1
90th percentile
9
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Hull City
17 Oct
Coventry City
24 Oct
Aston Villa
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £4.5m
- Ownership
- 4%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.91
- Rank · goalkeepers
- 1st of 40
- Clean sheet probability
- 40%
Read the model’s player summary
Bernd Leno (Fulham, Goalkeeper, £4.5m) is projected 4.1 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 45th of 320 projected players and 1st of 40 goalkeepers.
The model gives Leno a 96% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 6% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 45%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-9 points.
Fulham keep a clean sheet in 40% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Hull City (H) in GW7 (4.1 xP), then Coventry City (A) in GW8 (4.2 xP), then Aston Villa (A) in GW9 (3.1 xP).
This week Leno is 10th for value at 0.91 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3F11 | 3.5 | 1▼-2.5 | 90 | 98% | 1–8 |
| GW4 | 2.4 | 9▲+6.6 | 90 | 98% | 1–6 |
| GW5 | 3.0 | 3▼-0.0 | 90 | 98% | 1–8 |
| GW6 | 3.4 | pending | — | 97% | 1–9 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
4.1
GW8
4.2
GW9
3.1
GW10
3.4
GW11
2.2
GW12
3.4
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.