GW7 projected points
4.9
19th of 320
Start probability
94%
Next fixture
Haul probability
13%
10+ points
Blank risk
60%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.9
90th percentile
12
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Nott'm Forest
18 Oct
Everton
24 Oct
Liverpool
1 Nov
Player context
- Price
- £7.5m
- Ownership
- 7%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.65
- Rank · forwards
- 6th of 30
Read the model’s player summary
Kai Havertz (Arsenal, Forward, £7.5m) is projected 4.9 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 19th of 320 projected players and 6th of 30 forwards.
The model gives Havertz a 94% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 13% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 60%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-12 points.
Next up: Nott'm Forest (A) in GW7 (4.9 xP), then Everton (H) in GW8 (5.3 xP), then Liverpool (A) in GW9 (4.7 xP).
This week Havertz is a differential at 6.7% ownership (10th on the differentials list).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.4 | 8▲+3.6 | 77 | 65% | 0–12 |
| GW4 | 4.6 | 1▼-3.6 | 90 | 68% | 0–12 |
| GW5 | 4.0 | 2▼-2.0 | 90 | 68% | 0–11 |
| GW6 | 4.6 | pending | — | 71% | 0–13 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
4.9
GW8
5.3
GW9
4.7
GW10
5.7
GW11
4.9
GW12
4.5
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.