GW7 projected points
4.5
29th of 320
Start probability
96%
Next fixture
Haul probability
13%
10+ points
Blank risk
50%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.5
90th percentile
11
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Everton
17 Oct
Spurs
24 Oct
Man Utd
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £7.8m
- Ownership
- 43%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.57
- Rank · midfielders
- 16th of 136
Read the model’s player summary
Morgan Rogers (Chelsea, Midfielder, £7.8m) is projected 4.5 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 29th of 320 projected players and 16th of 136 midfielders.
The model gives Rogers a 96% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 13% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 50%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-11 points.
Next up: Everton (A) in GW7 (4.5 xP), then Spurs (H) in GW8 (5.4 xP), then Man Utd (H) in GW9 (4.9 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.4 | 6▲+2.6 | 86 | 95% | 1–8 |
| GW4 | 5.4 | 8▲+2.6 | 90 | 96% | 1–13 |
| GW5 | 4.4 | 2▼-2.4 | 90 | 97% | 1–10 |
| GW6 | 5.1 | pending | — | 97% | 1–12 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
4.5
GW8
5.4
GW9
4.9
GW10
4.4
GW11
5.0
GW12
4.3
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.