GW7 projected points
0.8
241st of 320
Start probability
8%
Next fixture
Haul probability
1%
10+ points
Blank risk
95%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
0.8
90th percentile
1
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Spurs
19 Oct
Fulham
24 Oct
Sunderland
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £4.9m
- Ownership
- 0.6%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.16
- Rank · forwards
- 22nd of 30
Read the model’s player summary
Ellis Simms (Coventry City, Forward, £4.9m) is projected 0.8 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 241st of 320 projected players and 22nd of 30 forwards.
The model gives Simms a 8% chance of starting, unlikely to start. Haul odds (10+ points) are 1% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 95%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-1 points.
Next up: Spurs (A) in GW7 (0.8 xP), then Fulham (H) in GW8 (0.8 xP), then Sunderland (H) in GW9 (0.8 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 1.3 | 1▼-0.3 | 19 | 34% | 0–2 |
| GW4 | 1.4 | 0▼-1.4 | 0 | 21% | 0–2 |
| GW5 | 0.8 | 1▲+0.2 | 16 | 10% | 0–2 |
| GW6 | 1.0 | pending | — | 8% | 0–2 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
0.8
GW8
0.8
GW9
0.8
GW10
0.7
GW11
0.8
GW12
0.7
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.