GW11 projected points
4.3
31st of 320
Start probability
93%
Next fixture
Haul probability
11%
10+ points
Blank risk
37%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.3
90th percentile
10
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Crystal Palace
21 Nov
Leeds
28 Nov
Ipswich Town
1 Dec
Player context
- Price
- £4.5m
- Ownership
- 0.1%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.95
- Rank · defenders
- 3rd of 115
- Clean sheet probability
- 30%
Read the model’s player summary
Ethan Pinnock (Coventry City, Defender, £4.5m) is projected 4.3 FPL points in Gameweek 11, ranking 31st of 320 projected players and 3rd of 115 defenders.
The model gives Pinnock a 93% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 11% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 37%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-10 points.
Coventry City keep a clean sheet in 30% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Crystal Palace (H) in GW11 (4.3 xP), then Leeds (A) in GW12 (3.4 xP), then Ipswich Town (H) in GW13 (4.1 xP).
This week Pinnock is in the Metis Fantasy 11, a differential at 0.1% ownership (18th on the differentials list), 2nd for value at 0.95 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW4 | 2.2 | 2▼-0.2 | 90 | 55% | 0–6 |
| GW5 | 3.0 | 8▲+5.0 | 90 | 75% | 0–8 |
| GW6 | 3.5 | 2▼-1.5 | 90 | 81% | 0–9 |
| GW7 | 3.2 | 1▼-2.2 | 90 | 81% | 0–9 |
| GW8 | 3.7 | 4▲+0.3 | 90 | 95% | 1–9 |
| GW9 | 4.0 | 4▲+0.0 | 90 | 95% | 1–9 |
| GW10 | 3.5 | pending | — | 95% | 1–8 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW11
4.3
GW12
3.4
GW13
4.1
GW14
2.8
GW15
3.7
GW16
3.0
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC.