Best FPL forwards, Gameweek 11.
GW11 deadline · Sat 21 Nov, 11:00 UK
Model updated
Erling Haaland (Man City, £15.8m) is the top projected FPL forward for Gameweek 11 at 7.4 expected points, ahead of N.Jackson (5.6), with a 28% chance of a 10-point haul.
30 forwards are projected this gameweek, 18 of them likely starters; best value is Kostoulas at 0.85 xPts per £m and the top differential is Thiago (9.0% owned).
Ranking
Top 25 forwards by expected points
| # | Player | xPts | Price | Owned | Start% | Haul% | Floor | Ceiling | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDHaalandMCI | 7.4 | £15.8m | 79% | 96% | 28% | 2 | 16 | v FUL |
| 2 | FWDN.JacksonAVL | 5.6 | £7.0m | 29% | 95% | 17% | 1 | 13 | v SUN |
| 3 | FWDIsakLIV | 5.5 | £9.2m | 24% | 89% | 17% | 1 | 13 | v MUN |
| 4 | FWDEvanilsonBOU | 5.1 | £6.5m | 22% | 96% | 15% | 1 | 12 | v NFO |
| 5 | FWDKostoulasBHA | 4.9 | £5.8m | 10% | 90% | 15% | 1 | 12 | @ HUL |
| 6 | FWDThiagoBRE | 4.8 | £7.8m | 9% | 96% | 13% | 1 | 12 | v EVE |
| 7 | FWDBarryEVE | 4.4 | £5.7m | 9% | 94% | 9% | 1 | 9 | @ BRE |
| 8 | FWDMarmoushTOT | 4.4 | £7.0m | 3% | 87% | 11% | 1 | 11 | v IPS |
| 9 | FWDHavertzARS | 4.3 | £7.4m | 6% | 73% | 12% | 0 | 12 | @ NEW |
| 10 | FWDMcBurnieHUL | 4.3 | £5.5m | 2% | 95% | 10% | 1 | 9 | v BHA |
| 11 | FWDSolankeTOT | 4.1 | £5.8m | 2% | 71% | 12% | 0 | 11 | v IPS |
| 12 | FWDEmersonnIPS | 3.6 | £5.5m | 3% | 87% | 7% | 1 | 9 | @ TOT |
| 13 | FWDCalvert-LewinLEE | 3.6 | £6.0m | 18% | 72% | 8% | 0 | 9 | @ CHE |
| 14 | FWDBrobbeySUN | 3.5 | £5.7m | 5% | 77% | 7% | 0 | 9 | @ AVL |
| 15 | FWDDelapNFO | 3.4 | £5.3m | 1% | 94% | 4% | 1 | 9 | @ BOU |
| 16 | FWDGonzaloFUL | 3.3 | £5.9m | 4% | 95% | 5% | 1 | 8 | @ MCI |
| 17 | FWDAwoniyiCOV | 2.9 | £5.4m | 0.3% | 47% | 8% | 0 | 9 | v CRY |
| 18 | FWDOsulaNEW | 2.9 | £5.8m | 0.4% | 70% | 5% | 0 | 9 | v ARS |
| 19 | FWDThomas-AsanteCOV | 2.6 | £5.0m | 1% | 50% | 5% | 0 | 8 | v CRY |
| 20 | FWDGyökeresARS | 2.2 | £7.0m | 3% | 27% | 5% | 0 | 8 | @ NEW |
| 21 | FWDWissaNEW | 1.5 | £5.9m | 9% | 27% | 1% | 0 | 2 | v ARS |
| 22 | FWDStrand LarsenCRY | 1.4 | £5.9m | 0.4% | 25% | 3% | 0 | 5 | @ COV |
| 23 | FWDWelbeckCHE | 1.3 | £5.8m | 0.7% | 8% | 2% | 0 | 4 | v LEE |
| 24 | FWDIsidorSUN | 0.9 | £5.4m | 0.8% | 10% | 1% | 0 | 2 | @ AVL |
| 25 | FWDFlemmingIPS | 0.9 | £5.5m | 0.1% | 4% | 1% | 0 | 1 | @ TOT |
xPts per £m · likely starters
Best value forwards
| # | Player | xP/£m | xPts | Price | Owned | Start% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDKostoulasBHA | 0.85 | 4.9 | £5.8m | 10% | 90% | @ HUL |
| 2 | FWDN.JacksonAVL | 0.80 | 5.6 | £7.0m | 29% | 95% | v SUN |
| 3 | FWDEvanilsonBOU | 0.79 | 5.1 | £6.5m | 22% | 96% | v NFO |
| 4 | FWDMcBurnieHUL | 0.78 | 4.3 | £5.5m | 2% | 95% | v BHA |
| 5 | FWDBarryEVE | 0.77 | 4.4 | £5.7m | 9% | 94% | @ BRE |
| 6 | FWDSolankeTOT | 0.70 | 4.1 | £5.8m | 2% | 71% | v IPS |
| 7 | FWDEmersonnIPS | 0.66 | 3.6 | £5.5m | 3% | 87% | @ TOT |
| 8 | FWDDelapNFO | 0.63 | 3.4 | £5.3m | 1% | 94% | @ BOU |
| 9 | FWDMarmoushTOT | 0.63 | 4.4 | £7.0m | 3% | 87% | v IPS |
| 10 | FWDThiagoBRE | 0.62 | 4.8 | £7.8m | 9% | 96% | v EVE |
Under 10% owned
Differential forwards
| # | Player | xPts | Owned | Price | Start% | Haul% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDThiagoBRE | 4.8 | 9% | £7.8m | 96% | 13% | v EVE |
| 2 | FWDBarryEVE | 4.4 | 9% | £5.7m | 94% | 9% | @ BRE |
| 3 | FWDMarmoushTOT | 4.4 | 3% | £7.0m | 87% | 11% | v IPS |
| 4 | FWDHavertzARS | 4.3 | 6% | £7.4m | 73% | 12% | @ NEW |
| 5 | FWDMcBurnieHUL | 4.3 | 2% | £5.5m | 95% | 10% | v BHA |
| 6 | FWDSolankeTOT | 4.1 | 2% | £5.8m | 71% | 12% | v IPS |
| 7 | FWDEmersonnIPS | 3.6 | 3% | £5.5m | 87% | 7% | @ TOT |
| 8 | FWDBrobbeySUN | 3.5 | 5% | £5.7m | 77% | 7% | @ AVL |
| 9 | FWDDelapNFO | 3.4 | 1% | £5.3m | 94% | 4% | @ BOU |
| 10 | FWDGonzaloFUL | 3.3 | 4% | £5.9m | 95% | 5% | @ MCI |
90th percentile
Highest ceilings — forwards
| # | Player | Ceiling | xPts | Price | Owned | Haul% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDHaalandMCI | 16 | 7.4 | £15.8m | 79% | 28% | v FUL |
| 2 | FWDN.JacksonAVL | 13 | 5.6 | £7.0m | 29% | 17% | v SUN |
| 3 | FWDIsakLIV | 13 | 5.5 | £9.2m | 24% | 17% | v MUN |
| 4 | FWDEvanilsonBOU | 12 | 5.1 | £6.5m | 22% | 15% | v NFO |
| 5 | FWDKostoulasBHA | 12 | 4.9 | £5.8m | 10% | 15% | @ HUL |
| 6 | FWDThiagoBRE | 12 | 4.8 | £7.8m | 9% | 13% | v EVE |
| 7 | FWDHavertzARS | 12 | 4.3 | £7.4m | 6% | 12% | @ NEW |
| 8 | FWDMarmoushTOT | 11 | 4.4 | £7.0m | 3% | 11% | v IPS |
| 9 | FWDSolankeTOT | 11 | 4.1 | £5.8m | 2% | 12% | v IPS |
| 10 | FWDBarryEVE | 9 | 4.4 | £5.7m | 9% | 9% | @ BRE |
Start probability
Most nailed forwards
| # | Player | Start% | xPts | Price | Owned | Blank% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDHaalandMCI | 96% | 7.4 | £15.8m | 79% | 38% | v FUL |
| 2 | FWDEvanilsonBOU | 96% | 5.1 | £6.5m | 22% | 55% | v NFO |
| 3 | FWDThiagoBRE | 96% | 4.8 | £7.8m | 9% | 59% | v EVE |
| 4 | FWDN.JacksonAVL | 95% | 5.6 | £7.0m | 29% | 54% | v SUN |
| 5 | FWDMcBurnieHUL | 95% | 4.3 | £5.5m | 2% | 65% | v BHA |
| 6 | FWDGonzaloFUL | 95% | 3.3 | £5.9m | 4% | 76% | @ MCI |
| 7 | FWDBarryEVE | 94% | 4.4 | £5.7m | 9% | 65% | @ BRE |
| 8 | FWDDelapNFO | 94% | 3.4 | £5.3m | 1% | 77% | @ BOU |
| 9 | FWDKostoulasBHA | 90% | 4.9 | £5.8m | 10% | 56% | @ HUL |
| 10 | FWDIsakLIV | 89% | 5.5 | £9.2m | 24% | 53% | v MUN |
Methodology
Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m.
Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC