GW6 projected points
4.3
25th of 320
Start probability
83%
Next fixture
Haul probability
12%
10+ points
Blank risk
64%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.3
90th percentile
12
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Brentford
10 Oct
Newcastle
17 Oct
Man City
24 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £6.5m
- Ownership
- 1%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.67
- Rank · forwards
- 8th of 30
Read the model’s player summary
Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa, Forward, £6.5m) is projected 4.3 FPL points in Gameweek 6, ranking 25th of 320 projected players and 8th of 30 forwards.
The model gives N.Jackson a 83% chance of starting, a probable starter. Haul odds (10+ points) are 12% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 64%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-12 points.
Next up: Brentford (H) in GW6 (4.3 xP), then Newcastle (A) in GW7 (4.1 xP), then Man City (H) in GW8 (3.7 xP).
This week N.Jackson is a differential at 1.4% ownership (13th on the differentials list).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.5 | 2▼-1.5 | 84 | 66% | 0–9 |
| GW4 | 4.0 | 0▼-4.0 | 45 | 82% | 0–9 |
| GW5 | 3.4 | 6▲+2.6 | 87 | 73% | 0–9 |
| GW6 | 4.3latest | pending | — | 83% | 1–12 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW6
4.3
GW7
4.1
GW8
3.7
GW9
4.6
GW10
3.8
GW11
4.7
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC.