GW11 projected points
5.6
5th of 320
Start probability
95%
Next fixture
Haul probability
17%
10+ points
Blank risk
54%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
5.6
90th percentile
13
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Sunderland
21 Nov
Ipswich Town
28 Nov
Everton
2 Dec
Player context
- Price
- £7.0m
- Ownership
- 29%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.80
- Rank · forwards
- 2nd of 30
Read the model’s player summary
Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa, Forward, £7.0m) is projected 5.6 FPL points in Gameweek 11, ranking 5th of 320 projected players and 2nd of 30 forwards.
The model gives N.Jackson a 95% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 17% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 54%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-13 points.
Next up: Sunderland (H) in GW11 (5.6 xP), then Ipswich Town (A) in GW12 (5.6 xP), then Everton (H) in GW13 (5.2 xP).
This week N.Jackson is in the Metis Fantasy 11, the 5th-ranked captain pick, 24th for value at 0.80 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.5 | 2▼-1.5 | 84 | 66% | 0–9 |
| GW4 | 4.0 | 0▼-4.0 | 45 | 82% | 0–9 |
| GW5 | 3.4 | 6▲+2.6 | 87 | 73% | 0–9 |
| GW6 | 4.1 | 9▲+4.9 | 90 | 83% | 1–10 |
| GW7 | 4.1 | 2▼-2.1 | 90 | 82% | 0–10 |
| GW8 | 3.8 | 13▲+9.2 | 81 | 95% | 1–9 |
| GW9 | 5.3 | 9▲+3.7 | 90 | 96% | 1–12 |
| GW10 | 4.8 | pending | — | 97% | 1–12 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW11
5.6
GW12
5.6
GW13
5.2
GW14
5.8
GW15
5.4
GW16
4.8
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC.