FPL start probability & rotation risks, Gameweek 11.
GW11 deadline · Sat 21 Nov, 11:00 UK
Model updated
198 of 320 projected players are more likely than not to start in Gameweek 11, and 134 are at 85% or higher. The biggest rotation risk with real upside is Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura (Arsenal): 3.7 xPts but only a 66% start chance.
Start probability comes from each player's fitted starting pattern updated with actual starts from finished gameweeks and a goalkeeper hierarchy check; expected points already weight every outcome by it, so a rotation risk's xPts is what you get on average, not if they start.
Start chance below 70%
Rotation risks worth a second look
| # | Player | Start% | xPts | Price | Owned | Ceiling | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIDBruno G.ARS | 66% | 3.7 | £6.7m | 2% | 10 | @ NEW |
| 2 | MIDCunhaMUN | 62% | 3.1 | £7.8m | 6% | 9 | @ LIV |
| 3 | FWDAwoniyiCOV | 47% | 2.9 | £5.4m | 0.3% | 9 | v CRY |
| 4 | FWDOsulaNEW | 70% | 2.9 | £5.8m | 0.4% | 9 | v ARS |
| 5 | GKPendersCHE | 70% | 2.9 | £4.4m | 0.3% | 8 | v LEE |
| 6 | DEFFofanaCHE | 55% | 2.9 | £5.0m | 0.2% | 9 | v LEE |
| 7 | FWDThomas-AsanteCOV | 50% | 2.6 | £5.0m | 1% | 8 | v CRY |
| 8 | MIDGeorgeEVE | 70% | 2.5 | £5.5m | 0.5% | 6 | @ BRE |
Start chance 85% or higher
Most nailed players
| # | Player | Start% | xPts | Price | Owned | Blank% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEFTarkowskiEVE | 97% | 3.5 | £6.2m | 20% | 47% | @ BRE |
| 2 | DEFVirgilLIV | 97% | 3.6 | £6.4m | 15% | 50% | v MUN |
| 3 | MIDRogersCHE | 97% | 6.3 | £8.2m | 54% | 38% | v LEE |
| 4 | DEFVan HeckeTOT | 97% | 4.2 | £5.0m | 13% | 46% | v IPS |
| 5 | DEFTruffertBOU | 97% | 3.9 | £5.4m | 3% | 50% | v NFO |
| 6 | MIDAmpaduLEE | 97% | 3.3 | £5.3m | 0.7% | 47% | @ CHE |
| 7 | GKPickfordEVE | 97% | 2.9 | £5.5m | 9% | 66% | @ BRE |
| 8 | MIDRiceARS | 97% | 4.1 | £7.5m | 14% | 35% | @ NEW |
| 9 | GKRayaARS | 97% | 3.8 | £6.2m | 47% | 52% | @ NEW |
| 10 | GKVerbruggenBHA | 97% | 3.7 | £4.6m | 24% | 52% | @ HUL |
| 11 | MIDSadikiSUN | 97% | 2.5 | £4.8m | 0.2% | 73% | @ AVL |
| 12 | GKLenoFUL | 97% | 2.1 | £4.5m | 4% | 79% | @ MCI |
| 13 | MIDIwobiFUL | 97% | 3.1 | £5.4m | 2% | 71% | @ MCI |
| 14 | GKDonnarummaMCI | 96% | 4.1 | £5.5m | 7% | 46% | v FUL |
| 15 | GKPetrovićBOU | 96% | 3.3 | £4.5m | 3% | 58% | v NFO |
| 16 | MIDGarnerEVE | 96% | 3.3 | £6.0m | 0.2% | 45% | @ BRE |
| 17 | DEFMurilloNFO | 96% | 3.1 | £5.5m | 2% | 56% | @ BOU |
| 18 | MIDMbeumoMUN | 96% | 5.7 | £7.9m | 20% | 49% | @ LIV |
| 19 | DEFGabrielARS | 96% | 4.7 | £8.1m | 25% | 40% | @ NEW |
| 20 | DEFMitchellCRY | 96% | 4.0 | £4.5m | 5% | 55% | @ COV |
| 21 | DEFN.WilliamsNFO | 96% | 2.6 | £4.9m | 5% | 70% | @ BOU |
| 22 | GKRoefsSUN | 96% | 2.6 | £4.9m | 2% | 73% | @ AVL |
| 23 | FWDHaalandMCI | 96% | 7.4 | £15.8m | 79% | 38% | v FUL |
| 24 | MIDGroßBHA | 96% | 4.6 | £6.3m | 47% | 44% | @ HUL |
| 25 | MIDE.Le FéeSUN | 96% | 4.6 | £5.7m | 3% | 48% | @ AVL |
By club
Likely starters and the goalkeeper call
| Club | Likely XI | Shape | Nailed | Goalkeeper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 10/11 | — | 5 | GKRayaARS97% |
| Aston Villa | 9/11 | — | 5 | GKSuzukiAVL95% |
| Bournemouth | 11/11 | 4-5-1 | 9 | GKPetrovićBOU96% |
| Brentford | 11/11 | 3-6-1 | 6 | GKKelleherBRE96% |
| Brighton | 9/11 | — | 9 | GKVerbruggenBHA97% |
| Chelsea | 8/11 | — | 5 | GKPendersCHE70% |
| Coventry City | 9/11 | — | 6 | GKRushworthCOV95% |
| Crystal Palace | 10/11 | — | 5 | GKHendersonCRY53% |
| Everton | 11/11 | 4-5-1 | 7 | GKPickfordEVE97% |
| Fulham | 11/11 | 4-5-1 | 10 | GKLenoFUL97% |
| Hull City | 11/11 | 5-4-1 | 6 | GKTzolakisHUL95% |
| Ipswich Town | 11/11 | 4-5-1 | 9 | GKWaltonIPS93% |
| Leeds United | 10/11 | — | 7 | GKTraffordLEE93% |
| Liverpool | 10/11 | — | 9 | GKA.BeckerLIV96% |
| Manchester City | 10/11 | — | 4 | GKDonnarummaMCI96% |
| Manchester United | 9/11 | — | 6 | GKLammensMUN96% |
| Newcastle United | 8/11 | — | 5 | GKHorníčekNEW95% |
| Nottingham Forest | 11/11 | 5-4-1 | 8 | GKSelsNFO96% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11/11 | 3-5-2 | 7 | GKKinskyTOT93% |
| Sunderland | 8/11 | — | 6 | GKRoefsSUN96% |
Methodology
Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m. "Likely XI" counts the goalkeeper plus the ten outfielders most likely to start, only where each clears 50%.
Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC