FPL start probability & rotation risks, Gameweek 6.
GW6 deadline · Sat 10 Oct, 11:00 UK
Model updated
196 of 320 projected players are more likely than not to start in Gameweek 6, and 134 are at 85% or higher. The biggest rotation risk with real upside is Marcus Rashford (Man Utd): 3.8 xPts but only a 68% start chance.
Start probability comes from each player's fitted starting pattern updated with actual starts from finished gameweeks and a goalkeeper hierarchy check; expected points already weight every outcome by it, so a rotation risk's xPts is what you get on average, not if they start.
Start chance below 70%
Rotation risks worth a second look
| # | Player | Start% | xPts | Price | Owned | Ceiling | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIDRashfordMUN | 68% | 3.8 | £7.0m | 2% | 10 | v TOT |
| 2 | FWDEmersonnIPS | 59% | 3.4 | £5.5m | 4% | 9 | v FUL |
| 3 | FWDGonzaloFUL | 60% | 3.3 | £6.0m | 4% | 9 | @ IPS |
| 4 | MIDCunhaMUN | 63% | 3.3 | £7.9m | 6% | 9 | v TOT |
| 5 | MIDWillockNEW | 67% | 3.1 | £5.0m | 0.5% | 8 | @ COV |
| 6 | MIDDamsgaardBRE | 69% | 3.1 | £5.4m | 0.4% | 7 | @ AVL |
| 7 | FWDWelbeckCHE | 51% | 2.9 | £5.9m | 1% | 9 | v BOU |
| 8 | FWDJoão PedroCHE | 38% | 2.8 | £7.7m | 66% | 11 | v BOU |
| 9 | FWDThomas-AsanteCOV | 53% | 2.8 | £5.0m | 0.8% | 9 | v NEW |
| 10 | MIDJ.MurphyNEW | 64% | 2.7 | £5.9m | 0.1% | 7 | @ COV |
| 11 | FWDEvanilsonBOU | 60% | 2.7 | £6.0m | 3% | 8 | @ CHE |
| 12 | MIDMason-ClarkCOV | 65% | 2.6 | £5.3m | 0.1% | 7 | v NEW |
Start chance 85% or higher
Most nailed players
| # | Player | Start% | xPts | Price | Owned | Blank% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEFTarkowskiEVE | 98% | 4.3 | £6.1m | 16% | 39% | @ HUL |
| 2 | DEFGuéhiMCI | 98% | 3.4 | £6.0m | 18% | 58% | @ LIV |
| 3 | MIDRogersCHE | 98% | 5.4 | £7.7m | 40% | 42% | v BOU |
| 4 | MIDSemenyoMCI | 98% | 3.9 | £8.4m | 15% | 56% | @ LIV |
| 5 | DEFVirgilLIV | 98% | 3.4 | £6.5m | 16% | 53% | v MCI |
| 6 | DEFVan HeckeTOT | 98% | 2.8 | £4.9m | 7% | 61% | @ MUN |
| 7 | MIDAmpaduLEE | 97% | 3.0 | £5.4m | 0.9% | 51% | @ ARS |
| 8 | DEFTruffertBOU | 97% | 3.0 | £5.4m | 3% | 60% | @ CHE |
| 9 | GKRayaARS | 97% | 4.1 | £6.1m | 42% | 45% | v LEE |
| 10 | GKPickfordEVE | 97% | 3.4 | £5.5m | 9% | 56% | @ HUL |
| 11 | GKLenoFUL | 97% | 3.4 | £4.5m | 3% | 57% | @ IPS |
| 12 | GKVerbruggenBHA | 97% | 3.3 | £4.5m | 22% | 57% | @ SUN |
| 13 | MIDSadikiSUN | 97% | 2.6 | £4.9m | 0.2% | 72% | v BHA |
| 14 | MIDSzoboszlaiLIV | 97% | 3.9 | £7.0m | 33% | 52% | v MCI |
| 15 | MIDIwobiFUL | 97% | 3.7 | £5.4m | 0.7% | 54% | @ IPS |
| 16 | MIDGibbs-WhiteNFO | 97% | 5.3 | £8.0m | 16% | 47% | @ CRY |
| 17 | MIDAndersonMCI | 97% | 3.9 | £6.3m | 4% | 31% | @ LIV |
| 18 | GKPetrovićBOU | 97% | 2.5 | £4.5m | 3% | 74% | @ CHE |
| 19 | DEFMurilloNFO | 97% | 3.5 | £5.5m | 2% | 49% | @ CRY |
| 20 | GKDonnarummaMCI | 97% | 3.1 | £5.5m | 8% | 64% | @ LIV |
| 21 | GKRoefsSUN | 97% | 2.8 | £4.9m | 3% | 67% | v BHA |
| 22 | MIDMbeumoMUN | 97% | 6.8 | £7.9m | 21% | 34% | v TOT |
| 23 | FWDHaalandMCI | 97% | 5.7 | £15.6m | 74% | 52% | @ LIV |
| 24 | DEFMitchellCRY | 97% | 4.4 | £4.5m | 6% | 52% | v NFO |
| 25 | DEFGabrielARS | 97% | 5.0 | £8.0m | 23% | 34% | v LEE |
By club
Likely starters and the goalkeeper call
| Club | Likely XI | Shape | Nailed | Goalkeeper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 9/11 | — | 8 | GKRayaARS97% |
| Aston Villa | 9/11 | — | 5 | GKSuzukiAVL91% |
| Bournemouth | 10/11 | — | 6 | GKPetrovićBOU97% |
| Brentford | 9/11 | — | 6 | GKKelleherBRE96% |
| Brighton | 9/11 | — | 9 | GKVerbruggenBHA97% |
| Chelsea | 9/11 | — | 4 | GKMartinezCHE94% |
| Coventry City | 10/11 | — | 6 | GKRushworthCOV94% |
| Crystal Palace | 10/11 | — | 6 | GKBenitezCRY69% |
| Everton | 11/11 | 4-5-1 | 8 | GKPickfordEVE97% |
| Fulham | 10/11 | — | 7 | GKLenoFUL97% |
| Hull City | 9/11 | — | 8 | GKTzolakisHUL95% |
| Ipswich Town | 8/11 | — | 5 | GKWaltonIPS48% |
| Leeds United | 11/11 | 5-4-1 | 11 | GKTraffordLEE91% |
| Liverpool | 11/11 | 4-5-1 | 5 | GKA.BeckerLIV61% |
| Manchester City | 11/11 | 4-5-1 | 8 | GKDonnarummaMCI97% |
| Manchester United | 11/11 | 4-6-0 | 5 | GKLammensMUN97% |
| Newcastle United | 9/11 | — | 7 | GKHorníčekNEW95% |
| Nottingham Forest | 10/11 | — | 6 | GKSelsNFO97% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9/11 | — | 6 | GKKinskyTOT92% |
| Sunderland | 11/11 | 5-4-1 | 8 | GKRoefsSUN97% |
Methodology
Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m. "Likely XI" counts the goalkeeper plus the ten outfielders most likely to start, only where each clears 50%.
Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC