GW7 projected points
5.3
14th of 320
Start probability
96%
Next fixture
Haul probability
15%
10+ points
Blank risk
35%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
5.3
90th percentile
11
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Coventry City
19 Oct
Chelsea
24 Oct
Crystal Palace
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £4.9m
- Ownership
- 6%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 1.08
- Rank · defenders
- 1st of 114
- Clean sheet probability
- 44%
Read the model’s player summary
Jan Paul van Hecke (Spurs, Defender, £4.9m) is projected 5.3 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 14th of 320 projected players and 1st of 114 defenders.
The model gives Van Hecke a 96% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 15% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 35%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-11 points.
Spurs keep a clean sheet in 44% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Coventry City (H) in GW7 (5.3 xP), then Chelsea (A) in GW8 (3.1 xP), then Crystal Palace (H) in GW9 (4.4 xP).
This week Van Hecke is in the Metis Fantasy 11, a differential at 6.2% ownership (6th on the differentials list), 2nd for value at 1.08 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.6 | 8▲+4.4 | 90 | 97% | 1–9 |
| GW4 | 4.4 | 8▲+3.6 | 90 | 98% | 1–10 |
| GW5 | 4.2 | 6▲+1.8 | 90 | 98% | 1–10 |
| GW6 | 3.1 | pending | — | 97% | 0–8 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
5.3
GW8
3.1
GW9
4.4
GW10
3.4
GW11
4.6
GW12
3.7
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.