Best FPL defenders, Gameweek 6.
GW6 deadline · Sat 10 Oct, 11:00 UK
Model updated
Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (Arsenal, £8.0m) is the top projected FPL defender for Gameweek 6 at 5.0 expected points, ahead of Mitchell (4.4); Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 52% of simulations.
112 defenders are projected this gameweek, 72 of them likely starters; best value is Egan at 1.01 xPts per £m and the top differential is Mitchell (6.0% owned).
Ranking
Top 25 defenders by expected points
| # | Player | xPts | Price | Owned | Start% | CS% | Floor | Ceiling | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEFGabrielARS | 5.0 | £8.0m | 23% | 97% | 52% | 1 | 10 | v LEE |
| 2 | DEFMitchellCRY | 4.4 | £4.5m | 6% | 97% | 26% | 1 | 10 | v NFO |
| 3 | DEFCalafioriARS | 4.3 | £5.8m | 51% | 95% | 52% | 1 | 8 | v LEE |
| 4 | DEFTarkowskiEVE | 4.3 | £6.1m | 16% | 98% | 32% | 1 | 9 | @ HUL |
| 5 | DEFBotmanNEW | 4.3 | £5.0m | 0.7% | 96% | 31% | 1 | 9 | @ COV |
| 6 | DEFEganHUL | 4.2 | £4.1m | 7% | 96% | 29% | 1 | 9 | v EVE |
| 7 | DEFFofanaCHE | 4.0 | £5.0m | 0.2% | 92% | 28% | 1 | 9 | v BOU |
| 8 | DEFMaguireMUN | 4.0 | £4.8m | 9% | 96% | 39% | 1 | 8 | v TOT |
| 9 | DEFThiawNEW | 3.9 | £5.0m | 2% | 97% | 31% | 1 | 9 | @ COV |
| 10 | DEFRichardsCRY | 3.9 | £5.0m | 0.6% | 96% | 26% | 1 | 9 | v NFO |
| 11 | DEFBranthwaiteEVE | 3.9 | £5.5m | 2% | 96% | 32% | 1 | 9 | @ HUL |
| 12 | DEFKonsaARS | 3.8 | £4.6m | 19% | 87% | 52% | 1 | 7 | v LEE |
| 13 | DEFKhalailiCRY | 3.8 | £5.0m | 0.3% | 91% | 26% | 1 | 9 | v NFO |
| 14 | DEFO'SheaIPS | 3.8 | £4.0m | 3% | 96% | 27% | 1 | 9 | v FUL |
| 15 | DEFHallNEW | 3.8 | £5.3m | 17% | 96% | 31% | 1 | 8 | @ COV |
| 16 | DEFVuskovicBHA | 3.8 | £5.0m | 4% | 96% | 30% | 1 | 8 | @ SUN |
| 17 | DEFThomasCOV | 3.6 | £4.0m | 9% | 96% | 22% | 1 | 9 | v NEW |
| 18 | DEFBallardSUN | 3.6 | £4.9m | 3% | 96% | 21% | 1 | 9 | v BHA |
| 19 | DEFMurilloNFO | 3.5 | £5.5m | 2% | 97% | 25% | 1 | 8 | @ CRY |
| 20 | DEFAjerBRE | 3.5 | £4.5m | 4% | 95% | 25% | 1 | 8 | @ AVL |
| 21 | DEFPinnockCOV | 3.5 | £4.5m | 0.1% | 81% | 22% | 0 | 9 | v NEW |
| 22 | DEFDavisIPS | 3.4 | £4.0m | 7% | 96% | 27% | 1 | 8 | v FUL |
| 23 | DEFHillBOU | 3.4 | £5.5m | 0.8% | 95% | 18% | 0 | 8 | @ CHE |
| 24 | DEFBoscagliBHA | 3.4 | £4.5m | 0.3% | 93% | 30% | 1 | 8 | @ SUN |
| 25 | DEFRobinsonFUL | 3.4 | £4.5m | 1% | 96% | 26% | 1 | 8 | @ IPS |
xPts per £m · likely starters
Best value defenders
| # | Player | xP/£m | xPts | Price | Owned | Start% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEFEganHUL | 1.01 | 4.2 | £4.1m | 7% | 96% | v EVE |
| 2 | DEFMitchellCRY | 0.98 | 4.4 | £4.5m | 6% | 97% | v NFO |
| 3 | DEFO'SheaIPS | 0.94 | 3.8 | £4.0m | 3% | 96% | v FUL |
| 4 | DEFThomasCOV | 0.90 | 3.6 | £4.0m | 9% | 96% | v NEW |
| 5 | DEFBotmanNEW | 0.86 | 4.3 | £5.0m | 0.7% | 96% | @ COV |
| 6 | DEFDavisIPS | 0.86 | 3.4 | £4.0m | 7% | 96% | v FUL |
| 7 | DEFDiopIPS | 0.84 | 3.4 | £4.0m | 13% | 94% | v FUL |
| 8 | DEFMaguireMUN | 0.84 | 4.0 | £4.8m | 9% | 96% | v TOT |
| 9 | DEFKonsaARS | 0.83 | 3.8 | £4.6m | 19% | 87% | v LEE |
| 10 | DEFFofanaCHE | 0.81 | 4.0 | £5.0m | 0.2% | 92% | v BOU |
Under 10% owned
Differential defenders
| # | Player | xPts | Owned | Price | Start% | CS% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEFMitchellCRY | 4.4 | 6% | £4.5m | 97% | 26% | v NFO |
| 2 | DEFBotmanNEW | 4.3 | 0.7% | £5.0m | 96% | 31% | @ COV |
| 3 | DEFEganHUL | 4.2 | 7% | £4.1m | 96% | 29% | v EVE |
| 4 | DEFFofanaCHE | 4.0 | 0.2% | £5.0m | 92% | 28% | v BOU |
| 5 | DEFMaguireMUN | 4.0 | 9% | £4.8m | 96% | 39% | v TOT |
| 6 | DEFThiawNEW | 3.9 | 2% | £5.0m | 97% | 31% | @ COV |
| 7 | DEFRichardsCRY | 3.9 | 0.6% | £5.0m | 96% | 26% | v NFO |
| 8 | DEFBranthwaiteEVE | 3.9 | 2% | £5.5m | 96% | 32% | @ HUL |
| 9 | DEFKhalailiCRY | 3.8 | 0.3% | £5.0m | 91% | 26% | v NFO |
| 10 | DEFO'SheaIPS | 3.8 | 3% | £4.0m | 96% | 27% | v FUL |
Clean sheets
Highest clean-sheet probability — defenders
| # | Player | CS% | xPts | Price | Owned | Start% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEFGabrielARS | 52% | 5.0 | £8.0m | 23% | 97% | v LEE |
| 2 | DEFCalafioriARS | 52% | 4.3 | £5.8m | 51% | 95% | v LEE |
| 3 | DEFKonsaARS | 52% | 3.8 | £4.6m | 19% | 87% | v LEE |
| 4 | DEFMaguireMUN | 39% | 4.0 | £4.8m | 9% | 96% | v TOT |
| 5 | DEFShawMUN | 39% | 3.0 | £4.3m | 8% | 76% | v TOT |
| 6 | DEFMartinezMUN | 39% | 2.3 | £5.0m | 1% | 54% | v TOT |
| 7 | DEFDalotMUN | 39% | 2.3 | £4.9m | 2% | 55% | v TOT |
| 8 | DEFTarkowskiEVE | 32% | 4.3 | £6.1m | 16% | 98% | @ HUL |
| 9 | DEFBranthwaiteEVE | 32% | 3.9 | £5.5m | 2% | 96% | @ HUL |
| 10 | DEFMykolenkoEVE | 32% | 3.3 | £4.6m | 4% | 96% | @ HUL |
90th percentile
Highest ceilings — defenders
| # | Player | Ceiling | xPts | Price | Owned | CS% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEFGabrielARS | 10 | 5.0 | £8.0m | 23% | 52% | v LEE |
| 2 | DEFMitchellCRY | 10 | 4.4 | £4.5m | 6% | 26% | v NFO |
| 3 | DEFTarkowskiEVE | 9 | 4.3 | £6.1m | 16% | 32% | @ HUL |
| 4 | DEFBotmanNEW | 9 | 4.3 | £5.0m | 0.7% | 31% | @ COV |
| 5 | DEFEganHUL | 9 | 4.2 | £4.1m | 7% | 29% | v EVE |
| 6 | DEFFofanaCHE | 9 | 4.0 | £5.0m | 0.2% | 28% | v BOU |
| 7 | DEFThiawNEW | 9 | 3.9 | £5.0m | 2% | 31% | @ COV |
| 8 | DEFRichardsCRY | 9 | 3.9 | £5.0m | 0.6% | 26% | v NFO |
| 9 | DEFBranthwaiteEVE | 9 | 3.9 | £5.5m | 2% | 32% | @ HUL |
| 10 | DEFKhalailiCRY | 9 | 3.8 | £5.0m | 0.3% | 26% | v NFO |
Start probability
Most nailed defenders
| # | Player | Start% | xPts | Price | Owned | Blank% | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEFTarkowskiEVE | 98% | 4.3 | £6.1m | 16% | 39% | @ HUL |
| 2 | DEFGuéhiMCI | 98% | 3.4 | £6.0m | 18% | 58% | @ LIV |
| 3 | DEFVirgilLIV | 98% | 3.4 | £6.5m | 16% | 53% | v MCI |
| 4 | DEFVan HeckeTOT | 98% | 2.8 | £4.9m | 7% | 61% | @ MUN |
| 5 | DEFTruffertBOU | 97% | 3.0 | £5.4m | 3% | 60% | @ CHE |
| 6 | DEFMurilloNFO | 97% | 3.5 | £5.5m | 2% | 49% | @ CRY |
| 7 | DEFMitchellCRY | 97% | 4.4 | £4.5m | 6% | 52% | v NFO |
| 8 | DEFGabrielARS | 97% | 5.0 | £8.0m | 23% | 34% | v LEE |
| 9 | DEFThiawNEW | 97% | 3.9 | £5.0m | 2% | 46% | @ COV |
| 10 | DEFN.WilliamsNFO | 97% | 3.0 | £5.0m | 9% | 63% | @ CRY |
Methodology
Projections come from the Metis club match model (goal-expectation and scoreline distributions per fixture), converted to FPL points through a simulated minutes / goals / assists / clean-sheet engine. Floor = p10, ceiling = p90, haul = >=10pts, blank = <=2pts; start% is the modelled probability of starting; value = xPts per £m.
Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC