GW7 projected points
4.5
27th of 320
Start probability
95%
Next fixture
Haul probability
10%
10+ points
Blank risk
44%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.5
90th percentile
9
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Ipswich Town
17 Oct
Aston Villa
24 Oct
Brighton
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £5.8m
- Ownership
- 28%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.78
- Rank · defenders
- 5th of 114
- Clean sheet probability
- 44%
Read the model’s player summary
Joško Gvardiol (Man City, Defender, £5.8m) is projected 4.5 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 27th of 320 projected players and 5th of 114 defenders.
The model gives Gvardiol a 95% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 10% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 44%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-9 points.
Man City keep a clean sheet in 44% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Ipswich Town (H) in GW7 (4.5 xP), then Aston Villa (A) in GW8 (3.6 xP), then Brighton (H) in GW9 (3.8 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.3 | 8▲+3.7 | 90 | 95% | 1–8 |
| GW4 | 3.1 | 11▲+7.9 | 90 | 96% | 1–7 |
| GW5 | 4.8 | 4▼-0.8 | 90 | 97% | 1–9 |
| GW6 | 3.3 | pending | — | 96% | 1–7 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
4.5
GW8
3.6
GW9
3.8
GW10
3.8
GW11
4.3
GW12
2.9
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.