GW7 projected points
4.1
46th of 320
Start probability
96%
Next fixture
Haul probability
10%
10+ points
Blank risk
47%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.1
90th percentile
9
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Brentford
17 Oct
Brighton
25 Oct
Arsenal
1 Nov
Player context
- Price
- £6.5m
- Ownership
- 16%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.63
- Rank · defenders
- 11th of 114
- Clean sheet probability
- 27%
Read the model’s player summary
Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool, Defender, £6.5m) is projected 4.1 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 46th of 320 projected players and 11th of 114 defenders.
The model gives Virgil a 96% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 10% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 47%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-9 points.
Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 27% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Brentford (A) in GW7 (4.1 xP), then Brighton (H) in GW8 (3.9 xP), then Arsenal (H) in GW9 (3.3 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.4 | 6▲+1.6 | 90 | 98% | 1–9 |
| GW4 | 4.5 | 8▲+3.5 | 90 | 98% | 1–9 |
| GW5 | 4.0 | 8▲+4.0 | 90 | 98% | 1–9 |
| GW6 | 3.7 | pending | — | 97% | 1–9 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
4.1
GW8
3.9
GW9
3.3
GW10
3.9
GW11
3.5
GW12
3.6
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.