GW7 projected points
3.9
57th of 320
Start probability
94%
Next fixture
Haul probability
5%
10+ points
Blank risk
52%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
3.9
90th percentile
7
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Nott'm Forest
18 Oct
Everton
24 Oct
Liverpool
1 Nov
Player context
- Price
- £5.9m
- Ownership
- 52%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.66
- Rank · defenders
- 17th of 114
- Clean sheet probability
- 47%
Read the model’s player summary
Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal, Defender, £5.9m) is projected 3.9 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 57th of 320 projected players and 17th of 114 defenders.
The model gives Calafiori a 94% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 5% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 52%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-7 points.
Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 47% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Nott'm Forest (A) in GW7 (3.9 xP), then Everton (H) in GW8 (4.3 xP), then Liverpool (A) in GW9 (3.4 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.7 | 2▼-1.7 | 66 | 96% | 1–7 |
| GW4 | 4.2 | 6▲+1.8 | 90 | 96% | 1–8 |
| GW5 | 3.5 | 1▼-2.5 | 90 | 97% | 1–7 |
| GW6 | 4.2 | pending | — | 95% | 1–8 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
3.9
GW8
4.3
GW9
3.4
GW10
4.5
GW11
3.7
GW12
3.3
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.