GW11 projected points
2.4
178th of 320
Start probability
54%
Next fixture
Haul probability
3%
10+ points
Blank risk
72%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
2.4
90th percentile
6
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Newcastle
21 Nov
Man City
29 Nov
Brentford
2 Dec
Player context
- Price
- £6.5m
- Ownership
- 0.9%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.37
- Rank · defenders
- 63rd of 115
- Clean sheet probability
- 44%
Read the model’s player summary
Jurriën Timber (Arsenal, Defender, £6.5m) is projected 2.4 FPL points in Gameweek 11, ranking 178th of 320 projected players and 63rd of 115 defenders.
The model gives J.Timber a 54% chance of starting, a rotation risk. Haul odds (10+ points) are 3% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 72%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-6 points.
Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 44% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Newcastle (A) in GW11 (2.4 xP), then Man City (H) in GW12 (2.2 xP), then Brentford (A) in GW13 (2.3 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW5 | 0.7 | 0▼-0.7 | 59 | 9% | 0–1 |
| GW6 | 1.8 | 1▼-0.8 | 27 | 35% | 0–6 |
| GW7 | 1.7 | 1▼-0.7 | 24 | 34% | 0–6 |
| GW8 | 1.1 | 0▼-1.1 | 0 | 14% | 0–2 |
| GW9 | 0.7 | 5▲+4.3 | 90 | 9% | 0–1 |
| GW10 | 3.1 | pending | — | 57% | 0–7 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW11
2.4
GW12
2.2
GW13
2.3
GW14
2.5
GW15
2.6
GW16
2.5
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC.