GW6 projected points
4.0
38th of 320
Start probability
92%
Next fixture
Haul probability
8%
10+ points
Blank risk
38%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.0
90th percentile
9
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Bournemouth
10 Oct
Everton
17 Oct
Spurs
24 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £5.0m
- Ownership
- 0.2%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.81
- Rank · defenders
- 7th of 112
- Clean sheet probability
- 28%
Read the model’s player summary
Wesley Fofana (Chelsea, Defender, £5.0m) is projected 4.0 FPL points in Gameweek 6, ranking 38th of 320 projected players and 7th of 112 defenders.
The model gives Fofana a 92% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 8% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 38%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-9 points.
Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 28% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Bournemouth (H) in GW6 (4.0 xP), then Everton (A) in GW7 (3.7 xP), then Spurs (H) in GW8 (4.5 xP).
This week Fofana is in the Metis Fantasy 11, a differential at 0.2% ownership (21st on the differentials list), 23rd for value at 0.81 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 2.3 | 3▲+0.7 | 90 | 70% | 0–6 |
| GW4 | 4.5 | 1▼-3.5 | 85 | 85% | 1–9 |
| GW5 | 3.6 | 4▲+0.4 | 70 | 91% | 1–8 |
| GW6F11 | 4.0latest | pending | — | 92% | 1–9 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW6
4.0
GW7
3.7
GW8
4.5
GW9
3.9
GW10
3.9
GW11
3.9
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC.