GW11 projected points
4.4
25th of 320
Start probability
94%
Next fixture
Haul probability
9%
10+ points
Blank risk
65%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.4
90th percentile
9
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Brentford
23 Nov
Liverpool
29 Nov
Aston Villa
2 Dec
Player context
- Price
- £5.7m
- Ownership
- 9%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.77
- Rank · forwards
- 7th of 30
Read the model’s player summary
Thierno Barry (Everton, Forward, £5.7m) is projected 4.4 FPL points in Gameweek 11, ranking 25th of 320 projected players and 7th of 30 forwards.
The model gives Barry a 94% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 9% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 65%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-9 points.
Next up: Brentford (A) in GW11 (4.4 xP), then Liverpool (H) in GW12 (5.1 xP), then Aston Villa (A) in GW13 (4.5 xP).
This week Barry is a differential at 9.1% ownership (13th on the differentials list).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.5 | 2▼-2.5 | 90 | 92% | 1–9 |
| GW4 | 4.3 | 2▼-2.3 | 90 | 94% | 1–9 |
| GW5 | 5.7 | 6▲+0.3 | 90 | 96% | 1–13 |
| GW6 | 5.1 | 6▲+0.9 | 85 | 94% | 1–13 |
| GW7 | 4.7 | 2▼-2.7 | 90 | 93% | 1–11 |
| GW8 | 3.6 | 2▼-1.6 | 90 | 96% | 1–9 |
| GW9F11 | 4.8 | 9▲+4.3 | 79 | 96% | 1–9 |
| GW10F11 | 6.1 | pending | — | 97% | 2–13 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW11
4.4
GW12
5.1
GW13
4.5
GW14
5.1
GW15
4.1
GW16
4.5
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC.