GW6 projected points
4.7
16th of 320
Start probability
94%
Next fixture
Haul probability
11%
10+ points
Blank risk
61%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.7
90th percentile
12
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Hull City
11 Oct
Chelsea
17 Oct
Arsenal
24 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £5.6m
- Ownership
- 8%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.85
- Rank · forwards
- 6th of 30
Read the model’s player summary
Thierno Barry (Everton, Forward, £5.6m) is projected 4.7 FPL points in Gameweek 6, ranking 16th of 320 projected players and 6th of 30 forwards.
The model gives Barry a 94% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 11% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 61%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-12 points.
Next up: Hull City (A) in GW6 (4.7 xP), then Chelsea (H) in GW7 (5.1 xP), then Arsenal (A) in GW8 (3.8 xP).
This week Barry is a differential at 8.1% ownership (7th on the differentials list), 14th for value at 0.85 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.5 | 2▼-2.5 | 90 | 92% | 1–9 |
| GW4 | 4.3 | 2▼-2.3 | 90 | 94% | 1–9 |
| GW5 | 5.7 | 6▲+0.3 | 90 | 96% | 1–13 |
| GW6 | 4.7latest | pending | — | 94% | 1–12 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW6
4.7
GW7
5.1
GW8
3.8
GW9
4.7
GW10
5.7
GW11
4.4
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC.