GW7 projected points
4.2
42nd of 320
Start probability
95%
Next fixture
Haul probability
11%
10+ points
Blank risk
55%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.2
90th percentile
10
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Newcastle
17 Oct
Man City
24 Oct
Fulham
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £5.4m
- Ownership
- 2%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.77
- Rank · midfielders
- 25th of 136
Read the model’s player summary
John McGinn (Aston Villa, Midfielder, £5.4m) is projected 4.2 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 42nd of 320 projected players and 25th of 136 midfielders.
The model gives McGinn a 95% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 11% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 55%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-10 points.
Next up: Newcastle (A) in GW7 (4.2 xP), then Man City (H) in GW8 (3.8 xP), then Fulham (H) in GW9 (4.7 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.4 | 3▼-1.4 | 90 | 96% | 1–10 |
| GW4 | 4.4 | 6▲+1.6 | 90 | 96% | 1–11 |
| GW5 | 4.2 | 6▲+1.8 | 83 | 97% | 1–10 |
| GW6 | 4.2 | pending | — | 96% | 1–10 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
4.2
GW8
3.8
GW9
4.7
GW10
4.0
GW11
4.7
GW12
4.8
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.