GW7 projected points
1.5
209th of 320
Start probability
48%
Next fixture
Haul probability
2%
10+ points
Blank risk
83%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
1.5
90th percentile
5
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Arsenal
18 Oct
Ipswich Town
23 Oct
Brentford
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £4.4m
- Ownership
- 2%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.34
- Rank · defenders
- 77th of 114
- Clean sheet probability
- 22%
Read the model’s player summary
Ola Aina (Nott'm Forest, Defender, £4.4m) is projected 1.5 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 209th of 320 projected players and 77th of 114 defenders.
The model gives Aina a 48% chance of starting, more likely benched than starting. Haul odds (10+ points) are 2% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 83%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-5 points.
Nott'm Forest keep a clean sheet in 22% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Arsenal (H) in GW7 (1.5 xP), then Ipswich Town (A) in GW8 (1.8 xP), then Brentford (A) in GW9 (1.5 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.3 | 1▼-2.3 | 58 | 96% | 1–7 |
| GW4 | 2.5 | 2▼-0.5 | 90 | 79% | 0–6 |
| GW5 | 3.6 | 0▼-3.6 | 0 | 89% | 1–8 |
| GW6 | 1.8 | pending | — | 48% | 0–6 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
1.5
GW8
1.8
GW9
1.5
GW10
1.4
GW11
1.5
GW12
1.7
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.