GW11 projected points
3.3
95th of 320
Start probability
94%
Next fixture
Haul probability
5%
10+ points
Blank risk
59%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
3.3
90th percentile
7
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Chelsea
21 Nov
Coventry City
28 Nov
Man City
2 Dec
Player context
- Price
- £4.9m
- Ownership
- 0.3%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.68
- Rank · midfielders
- 47th of 135
Read the model’s player summary
Tanaka Ao (Leeds, Midfielder, £4.9m) is projected 3.3 FPL points in Gameweek 11, ranking 95th of 320 projected players and 47th of 135 midfielders.
The model gives Tanaka a 94% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 5% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 59%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-7 points.
Next up: Chelsea (A) in GW11 (3.3 xP), then Coventry City (H) in GW12 (4.1 xP), then Man City (A) in GW13 (2.9 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 0.8 | 5▲+4.2 | 72 | 7% | 0–1 |
| GW4 | 2.7 | 6▲+3.3 | 71 | 61% | 0–7 |
| GW5 | 3.5 | 2▼-1.5 | 67 | 79% | 1–8 |
| GW6 | 2.8 | 1▼-1.8 | 70 | 86% | 1–6 |
| GW7 | 3.4 | 2▼-1.4 | 80 | 85% | 1–8 |
| GW8 | 3.6 | 3▼-0.6 | 88 | 96% | 1–8 |
| GW9 | 3.3 | 2▼-1.3 | 64 | 96% | 1–7 |
| GW10 | 3.8 | pending | — | 96% | 1–9 |
| GW11 | 3.5latest | pending | — | 94% | 1–8 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW11
3.3
GW12
4.1
GW13
2.9
GW14
4.0
GW15
3.3
GW16
3.6
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 08 Nov · 05:15 UTC.