GW7 projected points
3.5
76th of 320
Start probability
95%
Next fixture
Haul probability
7%
10+ points
Blank risk
50%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
3.5
90th percentile
8
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Chelsea
17 Oct
Arsenal
24 Oct
Newcastle
2 Nov
Player context
- Price
- £5.5m
- Ownership
- 3%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.64
- Rank · defenders
- 25th of 114
- Clean sheet probability
- 26%
Read the model’s player summary
Jarrad Branthwaite (Everton, Defender, £5.5m) is projected 3.5 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 76th of 320 projected players and 25th of 114 defenders.
The model gives Branthwaite a 95% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 7% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 50%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-8 points.
Everton keep a clean sheet in 26% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Chelsea (H) in GW7 (3.5 xP), then Arsenal (A) in GW8 (2.8 xP), then Newcastle (A) in GW9 (3.4 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.1 | 3▼-0.1 | 90 | 93% | 0–7 |
| GW4 | 3.3 | 6▲+2.8 | 90 | 95% | 1–8 |
| GW5 | 4.1 | 8▲+3.9 | 90 | 96% | 1–9 |
| GW6 | 4.2 | pending | — | 95% | 1–9 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
3.5
GW8
2.8
GW9
3.4
GW10
5.0
GW11
3.3
GW12
3.6
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.