GW7 projected points
2.3
167th of 320
Start probability
51%
Next fixture
Haul probability
3%
10+ points
Blank risk
73%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
2.3
90th percentile
6
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Crystal Palace
18 Oct
Liverpool
25 Oct
Man City
31 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £4.5m
- Ownership
- 2%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.52
- Rank · defenders
- 57th of 114
- Clean sheet probability
- 42%
Read the model’s player summary
Lewis Dunk (Brighton, Defender, £4.5m) is projected 2.3 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 167th of 320 projected players and 57th of 114 defenders.
The model gives Dunk a 51% chance of starting, a rotation risk. Haul odds (10+ points) are 3% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 73%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-6 points.
Brighton keep a clean sheet in 42% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Crystal Palace (H) in GW7 (2.3 xP), then Liverpool (A) in GW8 (1.7 xP), then Man City (A) in GW9 (1.4 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.8 | 5▲+1.2 | 90 | 97% | 1–8 |
| GW4 | 3.6 | 12▲+8.4 | 90 | 97% | 1–8 |
| GW5 | 2.7 | 0▼-2.7 | 0 | 98% | 0–6 |
| GW6 | 2.0 | pending | — | 52% | 0–6 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
2.3
GW8
1.7
GW9
1.4
GW10
2.0
GW11
2.1
GW12
2.1
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.