GW6 projected points
2.1
192nd of 320
Start probability
85%
Next fixture
Haul probability
2%
10+ points
Blank risk
73%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
2.1
90th percentile
6
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Arsenal
10 Oct
Man Utd
18 Oct
Sunderland
25 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £4.5m
- Ownership
- 0.1%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.47
- Rank · defenders
- 68th of 112
- Clean sheet probability
- 14%
Read the model’s player summary
Nico Elvedi (Leeds, Defender, £4.5m) is projected 2.1 FPL points in Gameweek 6, ranking 192nd of 320 projected players and 68th of 112 defenders.
The model gives Elvedi a 85% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 2% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 73%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-6 points.
Leeds keep a clean sheet in 14% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Arsenal (A) in GW6 (2.1 xP), then Man Utd (H) in GW7 (2.7 xP), then Sunderland (A) in GW8 (3.0 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW4 | 2.3 | 2▼-0.3 | 90 | 57% | 0–6 |
| GW5 | 3.1 | 6▲+2.9 | 90 | 78% | 0–8 |
| GW6 | 2.1latest | pending | — | 85% | 0–6 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW6
2.1
GW7
2.7
GW8
3.0
GW9
2.5
GW10
3.4
GW11
2.5
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC.