GW7 projected points
5.2
15th of 320
Start probability
93%
Next fixture
Haul probability
17%
10+ points
Blank risk
46%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
5.2
90th percentile
13
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Aston Villa
17 Oct
Crystal Palace
25 Oct
Everton
2 Nov
Player context
- Price
- £6.1m
- Ownership
- 8%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.85
- Rank · midfielders
- 10th of 136
Read the model’s player summary
Harvey Barnes (Newcastle, Midfielder, £6.1m) is projected 5.2 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 15th of 320 projected players and 10th of 136 midfielders.
The model gives Barnes a 93% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 17% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 46%, a moderate haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-13 points.
Next up: Aston Villa (H) in GW7 (5.2 xP), then Crystal Palace (A) in GW8 (4.6 xP), then Everton (H) in GW9 (4.7 xP).
This week Barnes is a differential at 8.2% ownership (7th on the differentials list), 19th for value at 0.85 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 4.3 | 12▲+7.7 | 90 | 92% | 1–10 |
| GW4 | 4.0 | 2▼-2.0 | 90 | 94% | 1–9 |
| GW5F11 | 5.6 | 9▲+3.4 | 90 | 95% | 1–13 |
| GW6 | 5.0 | pending | — | 94% | 1–13 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
5.2
GW8
4.6
GW9
4.7
GW10
4.3
GW11
3.5
GW12
3.9
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.