GW11 projected points
2.3
184th of 320
Start probability
73%
Next fixture
Haul probability
3%
10+ points
Blank risk
69%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
2.3
90th percentile
6
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Arsenal
21 Nov
Brighton
29 Nov
Man Utd
2 Dec
Player context
- Price
- £4.8m
- Ownership
- 0.7%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.49
- Rank · defenders
- 67th of 115
- Clean sheet probability
- 18%
Read the model’s player summary
Dan Burn (Newcastle, Defender, £4.8m) is projected 2.3 FPL points in Gameweek 11, ranking 184th of 320 projected players and 67th of 115 defenders.
The model gives Burn a 73% chance of starting, a probable starter. Haul odds (10+ points) are 3% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 69%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-6 points.
Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 18% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Arsenal (H) in GW11 (2.3 xP), then Brighton (A) in GW12 (2.2 xP), then Man Utd (H) in GW13 (2.6 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 0.0 | 00.0 | 0 | 0% | 0–0 |
| GW4 | 0.0 | 00.0 | 0 | 0% | 0–0 |
| GW5 | 0.0 | 00.0 | 0 | 0% | 0–0 |
| GW6 | 0.0 | 1▲+1.0 | 1 | 0% | 0–0 |
| GW7 | 0.0 | 1▲+1.0 | 1 | 0% | 0–0 |
| GW8 | 0.7 | 6▲+5.3 | 90 | 6% | 0–1 |
| GW9 | 2.3 | 1▼-1.3 | 90 | 53% | 0–7 |
| GW10 | 2.6 | pending | — | 76% | 0–7 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW11
2.3
GW12
2.2
GW13
2.6
GW14
3.3
GW15
2.7
GW16
2.3
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC.