GW7 projected points
4.2
43rd of 320
Start probability
95%
Next fixture
Haul probability
8%
10+ points
Blank risk
40%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
1
Mean projection
4.2
90th percentile
9
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Aston Villa
17 Oct
Crystal Palace
25 Oct
Everton
2 Nov
Player context
- Price
- £5.0m
- Ownership
- 0.8%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.83
- Rank · defenders
- 9th of 114
- Clean sheet probability
- 29%
Read the model’s player summary
Sven Botman (Newcastle, Defender, £5.0m) is projected 4.2 FPL points in Gameweek 7, ranking 43rd of 320 projected players and 9th of 114 defenders.
The model gives Botman a 95% chance of starting, effectively nailed. Haul odds (10+ points) are 8% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 40%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 1-9 points.
Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 29% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Aston Villa (H) in GW7 (4.2 xP), then Crystal Palace (A) in GW8 (3.9 xP), then Everton (H) in GW9 (4.2 xP).
This week Botman is 21st for value at 0.83 xPts per £m.
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | 3.9 | 1▼-2.9 | 90 | 96% | 1–8 |
| GW4 | 3.6 | 2▼-1.6 | 90 | 96% | 1–8 |
| GW5 | 4.6 | 4▼-0.6 | 90 | 97% | 1–9 |
| GW6F11 | 4.2 | pending | — | 95% | 1–9 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW7
4.2
GW8
3.9
GW9
4.2
GW10
3.7
GW11
3.3
GW12
3.1
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 11 Oct · 05:27 UTC.