GW11 projected points
1.2
229th of 320
Start probability
24%
Next fixture
Haul probability
2%
10+ points
Blank risk
86%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
1.2
90th percentile
6
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Sunderland
21 Nov
Ipswich Town
28 Nov
Everton
2 Dec
Player context
- Price
- £4.5m
- Ownership
- 0.4%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.26
- Rank · defenders
- 83rd of 115
- Clean sheet probability
- 40%
Read the model’s player summary
Tyrone Mings (Aston Villa, Defender, £4.5m) is projected 1.2 FPL points in Gameweek 11, ranking 229th of 320 projected players and 83rd of 115 defenders.
The model gives Mings a 24% chance of starting, unlikely to start. Haul odds (10+ points) are 2% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 86%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-6 points.
Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 40% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Sunderland (H) in GW11 (1.2 xP), then Ipswich Town (A) in GW12 (1.0 xP), then Everton (H) in GW13 (1.1 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW4 | 2.3 | 0▼-2.3 | 65 | 58% | 0–6 |
| GW5 | 1.5 | 3▲+1.5 | 90 | 33% | 0–5 |
| GW6 | 2.2 | 1▼-1.2 | 90 | 61% | 0–6 |
| GW7 | 2.0 | 7▲+5.0 | 90 | 60% | 0–6 |
| GW8 | 2.1 | 0▼-2.1 | 0 | 90% | 0–6 |
| GW9 | 1.9 | 0▼-1.9 | 0 | 46% | 0–6 |
| GW10 | 0.9 | pending | — | 26% | 0–2 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW11
1.2
GW12
1.0
GW13
1.1
GW14
1.2
GW15
1.1
GW16
0.8
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 07 Nov · 06:03 UTC.