GW6 projected points
2.4
176th of 320
Start probability
62%
Next fixture
Haul probability
3%
10+ points
Blank risk
72%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
2.4
90th percentile
7
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Brentford
10 Oct
Newcastle
17 Oct
Man City
24 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £4.5m
- Ownership
- 0.4%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.53
- Rank · defenders
- 61st of 112
- Clean sheet probability
- 28%
Read the model’s player summary
Tyrone Mings (Aston Villa, Defender, £4.5m) is projected 2.4 FPL points in Gameweek 6, ranking 176th of 320 projected players and 61st of 112 defenders.
The model gives Mings a 62% chance of starting, a rotation risk. Haul odds (10+ points) are 3% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 72%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-7 points.
Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 28% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Brentford (H) in GW6 (2.4 xP), then Newcastle (A) in GW7 (1.9 xP), then Man City (H) in GW8 (1.9 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW4 | 2.3 | 0▼-2.3 | 65 | 58% | 0–6 |
| GW5 | 1.5 | 3▲+1.5 | 90 | 33% | 0–5 |
| GW6 | 2.4latest | pending | — | 62% | 0–7 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW6
2.4
GW7
1.9
GW8
1.9
GW9
2.6
GW10
1.8
GW11
2.5
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC.