GW6 projected points
2.8
153rd of 320
Start probability
73%
Next fixture
Haul probability
4%
10+ points
Blank risk
65%
2 points or fewer
Projected points range
10th percentile
0
Mean projection
2.8
90th percentile
7
10th–90th percentile interval. Outcomes can fall outside this range.
Next fixtures
Hull City
11 Oct
Chelsea
17 Oct
Arsenal
24 Oct
Player context
- Price
- £4.5m
- Ownership
- 1%
- Value · xPts per £m
- 0.61
- Rank · defenders
- 53rd of 112
- Clean sheet probability
- 32%
Read the model’s player summary
Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Everton, Defender, £4.5m) is projected 2.8 FPL points in Gameweek 6, ranking 153rd of 320 projected players and 53rd of 112 defenders.
The model gives Maitland-Niles a 73% chance of starting, a probable starter. Haul odds (10+ points) are 4% and blank risk (2 or fewer) is 65%, a low haul chance; the 10th-90th percentile range is 0-7 points.
Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of simulations this gameweek.
Next up: Hull City (A) in GW6 (2.8 xP), then Chelsea (H) in GW7 (2.6 xP), then Arsenal (A) in GW8 (1.8 xP).
Projection record
How projections are scored →| GW | Snapshot xPts | Actual | Minutes | Start% | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW6 | 2.8latest | pending | — | 73% | 0–7 |
Rows marked "latest" are the latest nightly snapshot for a gameweek still ahead of its deadline; once the deadline passes the row is the final pre-deadline projection of record, scored against official points when the gameweek finishes.
Projection by gameweek
GW6
2.8
GW7
2.6
GW8
1.8
GW9
2.3
GW10
3.3
GW11
2.1
Gameweeks beyond the next ride un-anchored fixture strength and are less certain.
Projection from the Metis match model via a simulated minutes/goals/assists/clean-sheet engine. Last updated 23 Sep · 04:07 UTC.