Coventry vs Fulham — Premier League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Coventry
30%
Draw
27%
Fulham
43%
Expected goals
1.24–1.47
Coventry · Fulham
Fulham win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–2 (9.6%), 0–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Fulham win is 1–2 (9.6%).
Coventry score at least twice in 35%; Fulham in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Fulham goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Coventry goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market reference | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 27% | 43% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Coventry | 3.20 |
| Draw | 3.54 |
| Fulham | 2.28 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
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Coventry
| 21 Aug | A | vs Arsenal | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hull | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Man City | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Brighton | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Nottm Forest | 1–0 | W |
Fulham
| 24 Aug | H | vs Chelsea | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Coventry (Home · 3 matches) | Fulham (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Coventry's home record; away stats use Fulham's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.