Man Utd vs Bournemouth — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Man Utd
46%
Draw
26%
Bournemouth
28%
Expected goals
1.67–1.24
Man Utd · Bournemouth
Man Utd win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–0 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Man Utd win is 2–1 (8.8%).
Man Utd score at least twice in 49%; Bournemouth in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Bournemouth goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Man Utd goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market reference | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Man Utd | 2.13 |
| Draw | 3.72 |
| Bournemouth | 3.39 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
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Recent form
Man Utd
| 22 Aug | A | vs Hull | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ipswich | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Everton | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Man City | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 1–1 | D |
Bournemouth
| 23 Aug | A | vs Man City | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Everton | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Man Utd (Home · 3 matches) | Bournemouth (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Man Utd's home record; away stats use Bournemouth's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.