Liverpool vs Brighton — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Liverpool
46%
Draw
24%
Brighton
30%
Expected goals
1.64–1.23
Liverpool · Brighton
Liverpool win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–0 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Liverpool win is 2–1 (8.9%).
Liverpool score at least twice in 48%; Brighton in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Brighton goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Liverpool goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market reference | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 24% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 2.11 |
| Draw | 4.00 |
| Brighton | 3.22 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
Gameweek 8 projections →Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Liverpool
| 23 Aug | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nottm Forest | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Ipswich | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Fulham | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 1–0 | W |
Brighton
| 23 Aug | H | vs Aston Villa | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Chelsea | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Leeds | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Coventry | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Arsenal | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Liverpool (Home · 3 matches) | Brighton (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 4.67 |
Home stats use Liverpool's home record; away stats use Brighton's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.