Crystal Palace vs Newcastle — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Crystal Palace
32%
Draw
26%
Newcastle
42%
Expected goals
1.31–1.48
Crystal Palace · Newcastle
Newcastle win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–2 (10.0%), 0–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Newcastle win is 1–2 (10.0%).
Crystal Palace score at least twice in 37%; Newcastle in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Newcastle goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 12.4 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Crystal Palace goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market reference | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 3.06 |
| Draw | 3.68 |
| Newcastle | 2.30 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
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Recent form
Crystal Palace
| 22 Aug | A | vs Everton | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Man City | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 0–0 | D |
Newcastle
| 23 Aug | H | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Tottenham | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Crystal Palace (Home · 3 matches) | Newcastle (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.67 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Crystal Palace's home record; away stats use Newcastle's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.