Chelsea vs Tottenham — Premier League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Chelsea
56%
Draw
22%
Tottenham
22%
Expected goals
1.81–1.06
Chelsea · Tottenham
Chelsea win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.6%), 2–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Chelsea win is 2–1 (10.5%).
Chelsea score at least twice in 54%; Tottenham in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Tottenham goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Chelsea goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market reference | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.75 |
| Draw | 4.27 |
| Tottenham | 4.36 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
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Recent form
Chelsea
| 24 Aug | A | vs Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brighton | 4–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Arsenal | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Brentford | 0–3 | L |
Tottenham
| 22 Aug | A | vs Brentford | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Newcastle | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Nottm Forest | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Everton | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Aston Villa | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Chelsea (Home · 3 matches) | Tottenham (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 5.67 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Chelsea's home record; away stats use Tottenham's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.