Arsenal vs Everton — Premier League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Arsenal
67%
Draw
22%
Everton
11%
Expected goals
2.05–0.76
Arsenal · Everton
Arsenal win 67% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.7%), 1–0 (11.9%), 1–1 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Arsenal score at least twice in 61%; Everton in 17%.
Scoreline distribution
Everton goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Arsenal goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market reference | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.45 |
| Draw | 4.35 |
| Everton | 8.26 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
Gameweek 8 projections →Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Arsenal
| 21 Aug | H | vs Coventry | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Aston Villa | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Chelsea | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Sunderland | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Brighton | 0–3 | L |
Everton
| 22 Aug | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Bournemouth | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Arsenal (Home · 3 matches) | Everton (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Arsenal's home record; away stats use Everton's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.