🇪🇸 La Liga·Saturday, 29 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Espanyol | 4.33 | 4.33 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketReal Sociedad
53%
Draw
25%
Espanyol
22%
Real Sociedad 1.76 xGexpected goals1.04 xG Espanyol
Real Sociedad win 53% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.8%).
Real Sociedad score at least twice in 52%; Espanyol in 28%.
1–1 11.8%1–0 9.6%2–1 9.6%2–0 9.4%0–0 6.9%1–2 6.1%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Real Sociedad goals · columns = Espanyol goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals15%
Real Sociedad clean sheet35%
Espanyol clean sheet18%
Real Sociedad score 2+52%
Espanyol score 2+28%
Real Sociedad score 3+26%
Model vs market
| Source | Real Sociedad | Draw | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 25% | 22% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Real Sociedad
| 16 Aug | A | vs Valencia | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Espanyol | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Real Betis | 1–3 | L |
Espanyol
| 17 Aug | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Real Sociedad | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Osasuna | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Real Madrid | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 23 May 26 | EspanolvsSociedad | 1 – 1 |
| 24 Aug 25 | SociedadvsEspanol | 2 – 2 |
Real Sociedad: 0W 2D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Real Sociedad (Home) | Espanyol (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 78.9% | 63.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 73.7% | 57.9% |
| Clean sheet | 10.5% | 26.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.58 | 2.79 |
Home stats use Real Sociedad's home record; away stats use Espanyol's away record this season.