Real Sociedad vs Espanyol — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 1.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Real Sociedad
53%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Espanyol
22%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Real Sociedad win 52.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Real Sociedad win. Expected goals 1.72–1.05 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.9%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (10.0%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Recent form
Real Sociedad
| 21 Aug | A | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Elche | 3–2 | W |
Espanyol
| 16 Aug | H | vs Levante | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Real Sociedad | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sevilla | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Real Sociedad (Home · 3 matches) | Espanyol (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Real Sociedad's home record; away stats use Espanyol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.