🇪🇸 La Liga·Thursday, 3 September 2026·19:00
Metis Forecast
model onlyReal Sociedad
42%
Draw
28%
Celta Vigo
30%
Real Sociedad 1.45 xGexpected goals1.20 xG Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad win 42% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.3%).
Real Sociedad score at least twice in 42%; Celta Vigo in 34%.
1–1 13.3%1–0 9.3%2–1 8.9%0–0 8.1%0–1 7.5%2–0 7.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Real Sociedad goals · columns = Celta Vigo goals · % of simulations
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Real Sociedad goals · columns = Celta Vigo goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Real Sociedad clean sheet30%
Celta Vigo clean sheet24%
Real Sociedad score 2+42%
Celta Vigo score 2+34%
Real Sociedad score 3+18%
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Recent form
Real Sociedad
| 16 Aug | A | vs Valencia | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Espanyol | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Real Betis | 1–3 | L |
Celta Vigo
| 17 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 25 Jan 26 | SociedadvsCelta | 3 – 1 |
| 19 Oct 25 | CeltavsSociedad | 1 – 1 |
Real Sociedad: 0W 1D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Real Sociedad (Home) | Celta Vigo (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 78.9% | 63.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 73.7% | 42.1% |
| Clean sheet | 10.5% | 31.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.58 | 2.32 |
Home stats use Real Sociedad's home record; away stats use Celta Vigo's away record this season.