Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 34.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Real Sociedad
32%
Draw
27%
Atletico Madrid
41%
pick · result
Final score
0–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Atletico Madrid win 41.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atletico Madrid win. Expected goals 1.29–1.45 against 0–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–2 (9.4%), 0–1 (9.0%). It finished 0–3.
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Recent form
Real Sociedad
| 21 Aug | A | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Elche | 3–2 | W |
Atletico Madrid
| 19 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Athletic Club | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Real Sociedad (Home · 5 matches) | Atletico Madrid (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Real Sociedad's home record; away stats use Atletico Madrid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.